A nation deflated once again

Every second year Ireland travel in optimism and every second year they return deflated and hungover. You'd think we'd have learned by now. It's just as well the craic is good in pretty Edinburgh, because the results certainly aren't.

It may not have been anywhere near the scale of the defeat here two years ago by 38-10, a record for the fixture, but in many respects the sense of disappointment and shock was almost as bad. This time Ireland had real expectations. As it transpired, Saturday's defeat to Ireland's nemesis of the 90s was the heaviest of this season's championship and assuredly left Ireland with less straws in the wind to cling to than any other game.

Granted, the contest was very much alive for virtually an hour. Somewhat surprisingly, too, the match statistics convey the impression of a very tight match, both territorially and in terms of possession.

The amount of set piece ball was almost identical, and even the ruck count (54 to 44) didn't excessively favour the Scots, any more than the amount of times either side won ball in open play or crossed the gain line.

To a degree, this falls into the category of lies, damned lies, and statistics. Scotland, through the light and athletic Scott Murray, competed much better on the Irish throw and so stole three Keith Wood throw-ins, making the tally coughed up in the last two outings a disconcerting seven. Once again the scrum didn't put the Scottish scrum under the kind of pressure Ireland would have wanted, and was wheeled disconcertingly on the Irish put-in.

Perhaps the myth about the best tight five in Europe has been exposed once and for all. There are contributory loss-of-form factors; the most obvious of which is Paul Wallace. Probably no European player has taken a heavier toll in the last two years than the Saracens, Lions and Irish tight-head, in part because his club oblige him to play every week in the absence of another tighthead. It may be starting to tell.

His campaign has got progressively worse and reached its nadir here. His work-rate has declined and one token effort apart, his ball-carrying ability was virtually non existent, and contributed largely to the turnover which led to Scotland's pitch-length try which drove the final nail into Ireland's hopes. He's way better than this, but is not doing himself justice and looks like he's in need of a rest and/or an operation on his troublesome groins.

It's hard to be critical of a player who tried as hard as Keith Wood did. But aside from the lost line-outs, he's become heavily marked and his usefulness as a decoy was crying out during the second half when three costly turnovers resulted from his charges.

His big wind-up, arcing charges made little impact. When he did make yardage, it was invariably through his straighter running and sidestepping, a la his vintage try around Scott Gibbs in Wembley.

Peter Clohessy seemed to make a ton of tackles and similarly, Paddy Johns hit a ton of rucks, although the more mobile Scottish second-row put Ireland's in context. Jeremy Davidson (despite his Herculean Wembley performance) perhaps isn't ready for a full international campaign. Malcolm O'Kelly's loss had to tell eventually, and was felt more than ever on Saturday, as it will be until he returns, for there aren't any other obvious options.

It was significant that Ireland's brilliant early try resulted from their two best players, David Humphreys and Dion O'Cuinneagain, working in tandem. Humphreys touched the occasion with genius, and received approving imprimaturs all round, most notably from Scottish backs' coach John Rutherford.

"That was the most complete game I've ever seen him play. He really did vary his game well," said the former Scottish stand-off. As for O'Cuinneagain, he seemed to be numbers six, seven and 13 combined. Just as well.

Alas, around them the Scots held sway in all other positions. Martin Leslie's nose-in-the-grass spoiling and creative display bore the hallmarks of a true openside and was a regular thorn in Ireland's side - often literally when it came to fringing at rucks.

Andy Ward really tried, you could see that, and made a couple of trademark rumbles and good hits early on. But gradually missed tackles crept into his game - which was one of the strengths of his game 12 months ago. Akin to Wallace, he looks to be running on empty a little and in some ways still looks more suited to being a blind side.

The flawless Gary Armstrong, arguably the real man of the match, comfortably outplayed Conor McGuinness and ran the show, while as Warren Gatland acknowledged, from nine through to 13 was the difference between the sides. You just had to admit they were different class, whereas Bell didn't look test match fit, while Conor O'Shea was strangely off colour.

For the bottom line in the mountain of stats was the four to one try tally. End of story. If there was a defining moment in the match, it came during Ireland's best spell - the third quarter. With a four-man overlap, Wood slowed down the move before shipping it on to Bell, whose attempted 360 degree turn and flick went to ground. "You've just got to take your chances," opined Rutherford repeatedly afterwards.

Contrast that with the simplicity the Scots explored the blind side for their first two tries, and the slick handling and drawing of men through the hands of the Leslies, Townsend and Tait for the crunch 60th minute try by Cammie Murray.

This followed Eric Peters' enveloping tackle on O'Cuinneagain from the restart to the Humphreys' penalty which made it 1513. Martin Leslie came in and ripped the ball out but apart from Wood and Johns, O'Cuinneagain was given little protection. The pack, some of whom seemed to switch off, just weren't tight enough.

There were other regrets. The decision not to go for goal at 1015 just before the break, and the seven to one penalty count from Derek Bevan in the first half-hour coupled with some curious and critical scrum decisions in Scotland's favour. But we can't put this one down to Mr Bevan.

The Scots weren't carrying any passengers and looked a better drilled side in the continuity stakes, as if they had been doing more contact rucking in training. With an infusion of Kiwis, they've progressed quicker in 12 months.

Ireland have made progress, and did create chances on Saturday - Humphreys, O'Cuinneagain and Rob Henderson all opening up the Scots, albeit while other customary strengths creaked. But the problem is, with the exception of the French, nobody else is going backwards or even standing still. It's still a long road.

SCORING SEQUENCE: 2 mins: Penalty try, Humphreys conversion, 0-7; 7: Murray try, 5-7; 21: Logan penalty, 8-7; 22: Townsend try, Logan conversion, 15-7; 33: Humphreys penalty, 15-10; 58: Humphreys penalty, 15-13; 59: Murray try, Logan conversion, 22-13; 61: Grimes try, 27-13; 77: Logan pen 30-13.

SCOTLAND: G Metcalfe (Glasgow Hawks); C Murray (Hawick), A Tait (Kelso), J Leslie (Sanix), K Logan (Wasps); G Townsend (Brive), G Armstrong (Newcastle, capt); T Smith (Dundee High School FP), G Bulloch (West of Scotland), P Burnell (London Scottish), S Murray (Bedford), S Grimes (Watsonians), P Wilson (Newcastle), E peters (Bath), M Leslie (Edinburgh Reivers). Replacements: D Hilton (Bath) for Smith (40 mins), B Poutney (Northampton) for Walton (68 mins), S Longstaff (Dundee High School FP) for Murray (77 mins), S Brotherstone (Melrose) for Bulloch (78 mins), I Fairley (Kelso) for Armstrong (80 mins).

IRELAND: C O'Shea (London Irish); J Bishop (London Irish), K Maggs (Bath), J Bell (Dungannon), G Dempsey (Terenure College); D Humphreys (Dungannon), C McGuinness (St Mary's College); P Clohessy (Young Munster), K Wood (Harlequins), P Wallace (Saracens), P Johns (Saracens, capt), J davidson (Castres), D O'Cuinneagain (Sale), E Miller (Terenure College), A Ward (Ballynahinch). Replacements: V Costello (St Mary's College) for Miller (17 mins), R Henderson (Wasps) for Bell (64 mins), T Brennan (St Mary's College) for Ward (65 mins), C Scally (UCD) for McGuinness (76 mins).

Referee: D Bevan (Wales).