Ursula von der Leyen has featured in the Irish European election race in a way that none of her predecessors as European Commission president have before.
Her visit to Israel, and the unqualified support she offered its government, in the immediate aftermath of the October 7th attack which led to the war in Gaza, sparked a backlash against the German politician in Ireland.
Her name featured in televised debates and Opposition party press conferences throughout the election campaign. It has left the Coalition in an awkward situation as it will likely soon have to decide if Ireland will support her bid for a second term as commission president. That decision will come against a backdrop of Fianna Fáil and Green Party European election candidates being publicly opposed to von der Leyen returning to the top job in the EU’s executive.
Von der Leyen’s re-election prospects are not guaranteed. Five years ago she got over the line in Parliament by just nine votes.
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The numbers for the current governing majority of the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), which includes Fine Gael, centrist group Renew (which includes Fianna Fáil), and the centre-left socialists and Democrats (S&D), are expected to be slimmer after the weekend.
Von der Leyen has signalled she would be willing to rely on the support of Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia (Brothers of Italy), a hard right party, causing unease among parties who sit in the Renew and S&D groups.
Von der Leyen is the lead candidate of the EPP group under the Spitzenkandidaten system – where the commission presidency is supposed to be the prize for the party that returns the largest number of MEPs.
Polling suggests that the EPP will be the largest party after the weekend. So barring a shock abandonment of von der Leyen at the European Council – where heads of government, including Taoiseach Simon Harris, will determine by qualified majority who will be commission president nominee – her name is expected to go forward to be voted on by MEPs in the European Parliament this September.
You would be hard pressed to remember mentions of previous commission presidents like Jean-Claude Juncker or José Manuel Barosso – let alone controversy about them – during European election campaigns in Ireland. The same cannot be said for von der Leyen.
During RTÉ's first televised debate Maria Walsh, one of Fine Gael’s Midlands Northwest candidates, conceded that people had been asking her about von der Leyen on the doors. She confirmed she would be supporting her bid to be commission president while saying she did not agree with von der Leyen’s initial visit to Israel.
In the Ireland South debate Fianna Fáil’s Billy Kelleher said he would not vote for von der Leyen to have a second term. He did not to answer directly when challenged by Sinn Féin candidate Senator Paul Gavan about whether Fianna Fáil in government would refuse to support her.
Labour’s Dublin candidate Aodhán Ó Riordáin used his party’s last press conference of the campaign to argue: “If you vote Fine Gael in this European election you get Ursula von der Leyen, you get her policy on Israel.”
Earlier this year The Irish Times reported the Government intends to back her for a second term.
Tánaiste and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin said on Thursday that “no formal decision” has been made. He told Newstalk Radio that “a lot will depend on the results of the European parliamentary election itself in terms of the respective strengths of different groups”.
Mr Martin acknowledged concerns among his party’s MEP candidates at the stance von der Leyen took on Israel at the beginning of the current war but he also said she has been “an effective president of the commission”, highlighting her response to the Covid-19 pandemic and her support of Ireland during Brexit.
Asked about von der Leyen at a press conference this week Green Party leader Eamon Ryan said: “We’re going to have to wait and see the election returns.”
The question of whether or not the Government will support von der Leyen’s bid for a second term is expected to be discussed by the three Coalition leaders after the election.
Government sources played down the prospect of tension within the Coalition in a scenario where it backs von der Leyen for a second term, with any elected Fianna Fáil and Green MEPs later voting against her, though one conceded it “wouldn’t be ideal”.
A spokeswoman for Mr Harris said: “The matter hasn’t been discussed by the party leaders, and it’s a matter for after the election.”
Aidan Regan, an associate professor at the school of politics and international relations at University College Dublin, said von der Leyen’s prominence in the campaign says something about the “politicisation” of the role of commission president, citing her stance on Israel and Palestine.
He did suggest a situation where the Coalition backs von der Leyen and some of its MEPs vote against her could be used by the opposition as a “stick to hit the government with” in the next general election.
Von der Leyen’s name may well yet feature on the doors of another Irish election campaign.
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