Subscriber OnlyPoliticsAnalysis

Northern Ireland’s massive, unprecedented strike is still not enough to turn the DUP

Always the fear that British government, with election looming, would switch off and leave North to its problems

Northern Ireland Secretary of State Chris Heaton-Harris after meeting political parties over the Stormont stalemate. Photograph: PA

Freya McClements's face
Freya McClements
Mon Jan 15 2024 - 19:00

One by one, the Northern parties traipsed in through the gate at Hillsborough Castle to meet the Northern Secretary; one by one, they traipsed back out.

There had been no expectation ahead of the meetings on Monday that there would be a breakthrough which might either restore Stormont or avert widespread strike action later this week, and thus it proved.

Standing at the microphones following their meeting — the first of the day — the frustration of Sinn Féin deputy leader and first minister-designate Michelle O’Neill was evident.

“I can’t say we feel very positive by what we have heard today,” she said. “I think it’s fair to say there wasn’t anything that gives us any chink of light.”

READ MORE

Not for the first time, DUP leader Jeffrey Donaldson had a different take, saying “significant progress” had been made and “I think we’re moving forward now towards the moment when, hopefully, decisions can be made as to how we move forward”.

The problem is that moment has already come and gone, squandered back in December when Donaldson failed to accept the financial offer of £3.3 billion (€3.8 billion) which had been teed up to smooth the path back to the Assembly and Executive.

Protesters meet at the DUP Lisburn office ahead of Thursday's public sector strikes taking place against the background of a stalled Northern Ireland Assembly.

Now, it is clear everyone else’s patience has run out; for all the pleas that the DUP should return to Stormont — repeated on Monday by the other main Northern parties, by the Northern Secretary and by the protesters who heckled the DUP delegation on their way in — this is now an appeal born of hope, rather than expectation.

There is no sense the DUP is preparing the ground to go back in; it is not under pressure from its voters and feels it can stand its ground until, potentially, after the next UK general election.

This was always the fear, that in the absence of a deal the British government, beset by its difficulties and with an election looming, would simply switch off and leave Northern Ireland to its problems.

These will be much in evidence in the coming days: the optics of Sinn Féin’s Assembly recall on Wednesday — when it is expected that once again business will be blocked by the DUP — will make clear it is the DUP who is both preventing the other parties from getting on with their work, and stopping the public sector pay award which could prevent crippling strikes on Thursday.

It is worth emphasising the scale of this strike action. Northern Ireland will basically shut down on Thursday, with an estimated 170,000 people on the picket line, representing in effect the entire public sector.

There will be no public transport, roads will not be gritted, schools will be closed, and health and social care will be disrupted on a “massive and unprecedented” scale, with only minimal and emergency services available.

‘Referendums that won’t grasp the imagination’

Listen | 40:26

The Northern Secretary has made clear that the money to resolve this — part of the £3.3 billion deal — is dependent on a restored Executive; though the parties — this time including the DUP — and the unions have called on Chris Heaton-Harris to decouple the pay award from political talks, he has also made clear he will not do so.

From the British government’s point of view, if the public sector pay award is settled, whatever leverage it has over the DUP will be lost; the drawback with this as a strategy is that it assumes the DUP can be forced back into Stormont when all indications are that this simply will not work.

Sinn Féin's Michelle O'Neill says that is "increasingly untenable" for the DUP to cite the Northern Ireland Protocol as its reason for not forming an Executive.

It is also problematic for Heaton-Harris, who has already been accused of using striking workers as a bargaining chip; given the British government has already conceded the moral argument that this pay deal is necessary, how long can it continue to withhold funds?

In the meantime, all this points to another impasse; also on Thursday, the deadline for the restoration of the Assembly runs out and Heaton-Harris will become legally obliged to call a fresh election, though there is no indication he will do so.

Expect to see Heaton-Harris extend this deadline and set a budget and a regional rate in the coming weeks, and he could also take further action to cut MLAs’ pay.

In February, Northern Ireland will mark two years without a government; for all the talking, not only is the situation no further forward, it has slid back.

  • Sign up for push alerts and have the best news, analysis and comment delivered directly to your phone
  • Find The Irish Times on WhatsApp and stay up to date
  • Our In The News podcast is now published daily - Find the latest episode here
LATEST STORIES