The results of a review of Dáil constituencies is awaited with “red hot interest” among politicians, Minister for Public Expenditure Paschal Donohoe has said.
The new Electoral Commission is due to report on its deliberations in less than two weeks with the number of TDs set to increase to as many as 181, up from the current 160.
Reviews of seat numbers and constituency boundaries have the potential to make or break political fortunes.
Ahead of the last general election, Fine Gael’s Noel Rock said he lost 20 per cent of his voters “at the stroke of a pen” after a boundary redraw.
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He went on to lose his Dublin North-West seat in 2020.
Mr Donohoe meanwhile, saw his constituency, Dublin Central, gain voters from Dublin North-West which boosted his support.
However, at a press conference last Thursday Mr Donohoe said there was nobody saying he benefited when other changes were made before the 2016 general election.
He said: “I have a keen memory of what that moment is like when the maps come out and we all sit down to unfold the maps to see what the boundaries of our constituencies are going to be.
“There is a red hot interest all over the political system in what will be the conclusions from the Commission.”
[ What might the next Dáil look like? It is set to expand by at least 15 seatsOpens in new window ]
Mr Donohoe said there has been “much speculation” on what the maps will be like and “I know that at the end of August, they are going to be pored over by all of us to see what it means for our futures.”
He added: “If I learned anything from 2016 as well, is also the importance of keeping at your work and making the case for your efforts and looking to serve your constituents.
“And those efforts are what we’re all focusing on at the moment.”
He also said: “Of course I know the change in the boundaries in 2020 did have an effect on my former and missed colleague Noel Rock.
“But this is why these maps and the location of these red lines will be studied by everybody in politics.
“And I like everybody else await with great interest to see what those maps are going to be.”
The increase in Ireland’s population to more than 5.1 million as recorded in Census 2022 means an increase in the number of TDs is necessary under the Constitution which says there must be one TD for every 20,000 to 30,000 people.
Currently, all but one of the 39 Dáil constituencies have more than 30,000 people per TD.
The terms of its review allows the commission to increase the number of TDs in the Dáil to between 171 and 181.
Each constituency can have three, four or five TDs, and “the breaching of county boundaries shall be avoided as far as practicable”.
Speaking on RTE’s This Week on Sunday, Dr Theresa Reidy, political scientist at University College Cork (UCC), said the changes would have a “reasonably important impact”.
“There’s no doubt that this is a technical change, and it effects outcomes at the margins ... It’s not going to drive any transformation of politics. The momentum is with Sinn Féin. So, when you add that with the extra seats, you’d have to say this is really going to advantage Sinn Féin,” she said.
It was “quite likely” that nearly every county in the country is going to see some changes, Dr Reidy said, adding: “We’ll see some quite big changes in some of the bigger rural counties like Donegal and Kerry”.
