Zimbabwe's new PM

MORGAN TSVANGIRAI was yesterday sworn in to office as Zimbabwe’s prime minister but will he be able to wield any real power in…

MORGAN TSVANGIRAI was yesterday sworn in to office as Zimbabwe’s prime minister but will he be able to wield any real power in this most unfortunate country? Robert Mugabe remains president, his party continues to control the military, and he has refused to release 30 political detainees as agreed in the powersharing deal brokered by neighbouring states.

Mr Tsvangirai and his party decided nevertheless to enter the cabinet because of the truly awful humanitarian crisis facing Zimbabwe. Unemployment is over 90 per cent, prices are doubling every day, most people rely on international food aid, and 70,000 are suffering from cholera. Mr Tsvangirai vowed yesterday to tackle these conditions immediately and, primarily, to stabilise and rescue the economy. He denounced the existing culture of entitlement and impunity surrounding Mr Mugabe’s regime. He has appointed some strong ministers, but their ability to deliver change is constrained by political factionalism, a cumbersome governing structure and external sanctions. Above all, he is vulnerable to being outmanoeuvred by his far more experienced and wily opponent, who stands to gain legitimacy from this arrangement if it does indeed make a difference.

Sanctions imposed on the Mugabe regime by the United States, the United Kingdom and the European Union will presumably be reviewed if that does happen. But it will take time to assess any progress in relieving everyday suffering. The large-scale international aid desperately needed may also be withheld until then. Governments and aid agencies are justifiably suspicious that if they respond too soon or too permissively their contributions will be diverted by the regime from those who really need it. But without some relaxation of the country’s isolation this potential opportunity for meaningful change will be lost.

This is a gamble entered into by Mr Tsvangirai from a weak base, despite his parliamentary election victory last year. But it would be wrong for the rest of the world not to give it a chance to succeed. International pressure in favour of more fundamental political change must be maintained, working along with the Southern African Development Community which sponsored this powersharing deal. It should be possible to combine that with constructive efforts to provide immediate humanitarian relief. That was the popular spirit which greeted the new government yesterday in Harare. This feeling of hope should be nourished after so much despair and suffering.