A byelection in Dublin Central should be good for an 'Anybody But Fianna Fáil' candidate, writes NOEL WHELAN
THERE WAS little surprise this week when Maureen O’Sullivan announced she would contest the Dublin Central byelection caused by the untimely death of Tony Gregory.
O’Sullivan, a teacher and community activist in the inner city, has been a long-term member of Gregory’s informal political organisation which this week sought to structure itself more formally as the Gregory Group in an effort to hold on to his Dáil seat.
Gregory, as an Independent, was an electoral peculiarity, managing to hold his seat in eight successive general elections.
O’Sullivan, by comparison, has no electoral experience of note. She was co-opted to Dublin City Council last year when Gregory lieutenant Mick Rafferty resigned. Rafferty had inherited the council seat when the dual-mandate ban prohibited Gregory from contesting the local elections in 2004.
O’Sullivan gained prominence outside her local ward recently for her somewhat ungenerous remarks from the altar at Gregory’s funeral in January to the effect that Gregory would have been sceptical of those of other political persuasions who turned up for his funeral. She will have to show a greater openness to a wider spectrum of opinion if she is to have any prospect of securing the 50 per cent plus one necessary to secure a Dáil seat in a byelection.
Last weekend, Taoiseach Brian Cowen indicated the Dublin Central and Dublin South byelections were likely to be held with the local and European elections fixed for June 5th.
RTÉ reported this week that the Labour Party has not yet even decided whether to contest the Dublin Central byelection, which seems curious for a party on the surge.
Dublin Central is no ordinary constituency. It includes some of the most underprivileged and ethnically-diverse areas of the city. For the last three decades its politics has been dominated by large personalised political organisations, of which Gregory’s was only one. The strongest was, and in theory still is, Bertie Ahern’s, with its legendary well-resourced machine of ward bosses and street captains. Since 2002 Ahern has polled almost one in every three votes cast in the constituency and four of every five votes cast for Fianna Fáil. In 2007 Ahern again polled 1.8 quotas and had more than 5,000 first preferences to spare.
Such has been Ahern’s personal dominance that Fianna Fáil has struggled to elect a second candidate to Dáil Éireann with him. They solved that problem by requiring the Ahern machine itself to elect two TDs.
In 2007 Ahern’s long-term lieutenant Cyprian Brady was elected, largely as a result of the then Ahern transfers, having secured only 939 first preferences himself.
Any attempt to assess what might happen in a byelection based on how parties or candidates performed in previous general elections is fraught with danger. Assessing such prospects in a Dublin Central contest where Ahern himself is not a candidate is particularly dangerous.
Winning byelections when in government in good times has always proved difficult for Fianna Fáil.
Achieving even a credible performance in Dublin Central in the current environment will require a substantial candidate and the proactive engagement of the Ahern organisation.
The former taoiseach is likely to retire from Dáil Éireann at the next general election, so his local political machine is already going through its own transformation; its priority being to ensure Brady’s re-election. Burning energy in an attempt to elect another deputy in the byelection does not fit with their short or medium-term objectives.
The obvious Fianna Fáil candidate is Cllr Mary Fitzpatrick, who ran with Ahern and Brady in 2007, but her relationship with the Ahern machine has been prickly. It is likely, therefore, that some other personality from within the Ahern organisation, or maybe the Ahern family, may yet emerge.
Sinn Féin professes to have high hopes of winning this byelection but has not yet named its candidate. Mary Lou McDonald performed disappointingly when she moved into this constituency in 2007.
It is Fine Gael which is best positioned to win Dublin Central. Its candidate in 2007 was Paschal Donohoe, who polled 3,302 votes which was 9.5 per cent of the first preferences. Unlike O’Sullivan, Donohoe has the advantage of having a national political machine.
Byelections have a habit of becoming a contest between the strongest non-government contender and Fianna Fáil.
As of now Donohoe looks the strongest of the “Anybody But Fianna Fáil” candidates.