INSIDE POLITICS:As the overall shape of next week's voting seems to harden, there is no disguising the enormity of the political change under way, writes STEPHEN COLLINS
THE KEY message from the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll is that the voters have not been swayed by the election campaign and nothing they have seen or heard so far from the parties, or the candidates, has changed their determination to give Fianna Fáil a kicking next Friday.
The European election result will probably not be too bad for the party, because 20 per cent of the national vote should deliver a seat in at least three of the four constituencies. However, the local elections and the two byelections are a different matter and there seems to be no way the party can avoid a drubbing, particularly in Dublin.
It will mark new territory in Irish politics to have Fianna Fáil on close to 20 per cent of the vote and it is very difficult to quantify how that will translate into council seats. In many parts of the country it will inevitably result in Fine Gael emerging as the biggest party on local councils.
In the four Dublin local authorities the battle for first place will be between Fine Gael and Labour for the top spot and Fianna Fáil will trail in a poor third. One of the most shocking statistics in the poll is that the main Government party is tied with Sinn Féin on just 10 per cent of the vote in the capital, as far as local election voting intentions are concerned.
In spite of all that, there is still a chance that Eoin Ryan could cling on to his seat in the European Parliament. It will take a long count to determine whether he or Mary Lou McDonald of Sinn Féin will survive and there is even a chance that both of them could bite the dust if Socialist Party candidate, Joe Higgins, continues to develop momentum.
The Green Party vote is now stuck in dangerous territory at 3 per cent nationally. The fact that it is doing better in Dublin is important but it is still dicing with the same fate as the PDs unless it can improve its vote in the capital.
While the personalities of the four sitting Fianna Fáil MEPs may muffle the scale of the swing against the party, there is no disguising the enormity of the political change now under way. That is bound to have an impact on the ability of the Coalition to survive in the long term and it will raise doubts about its ability to carry the Lisbon Treaty referendum in the autumn.
On that front, the failure of Declan Ganley to make a significant impact is one of the few crumbs of comfort for the Government from the poll. He remains stuck on 9 per cent in the North West constituency and unless he makes a significant improvement over the next few days he has little chance of being elected.
Ganley’s statement that he will not attempt to lead another anti-Lisbon campaign unless he makes it to the European Parliament should remove one thorn in the Government’s side – if he keeps to his pledge. Either way, defeat on his home patch will be a bad blow for the anti-Lisbon campaign.
THE FAILURE of Fianna Fáil to recover is matched by the continuing strength of Fine Gael and Labour. Combined support for the two main Opposition parties is up marginally to a record 59 per cent. That would translate into a very comfortable win for the alternative coalition in a general election, assuming they can agree on a programme for government in its aftermath.
Eamon Gilmore has ruled out any prospect of a deal with Fianna Fáil so come the next election the voters will know that the alternative is a Fine Gael-Labour coalition. The only unknown will be the relative strength of the two main Opposition parties in such an arrangement and both will be fighting to maximise their support and hence their influence.
Fine Gael has now solidified its support in the mid 30 per cent range and the party will be working to try and push that figure closer to 40 per cent in order to reinforce its new-found status as the biggest party in the country. A victory in the two Dublin byelections would be a huge psychological boost for that Fine Gael ambition.
The Labour Party also senses a huge opportunity to make a decisive breakthrough on June 5th. The party is set to win at least two European seats and to challenge Fianna Fáil’s national share of the vote in the local elections. With the surge in its support in Dublin, Labour is also in with a good chance of winning a new Dáil seat in Dublin Central. If the party can do as well as the latest poll indicates then it too may be into new mould-breaking territory.
Eamon Gilmore has established himself as the most popular party leader in the country and that is proving to be a huge asset for Labour. If the surge of support in Dublin is maintained, the party could surpass the share of the vote won during the Spring tide of 1992. Importantly, the Labour vote in Dublin appears to be evenly spread across all social categories.
For Sinn Féin the poll result is a little disappointing. The party has not gained any momentum during the election campaign and, if anything, has slipped back a little since the start. Still, if it can hold its Dublin Euro seat, and win the 8 per cent or so of the vote in the local elections indicated by the poll, it should do reasonably well in terms of council seats.
At a national level the surge in support for the two main Opposition parties has left Sinn Féin becalmed. The promise of massive gains delivered in 2004 has not materialised but the party appears to have stopped the rot that threatened to set in after the 2007 general election.
The shape, if not the detail, of the election result is now clear. Once the votes are counted the focus will immediately switch to what happens next. That is when the fun could really start.