In 1992, almost a decade ago, 11,751 men and women enrolled for undergraduate degree courses in Irish universities. Eighty-three per cent of them succeeded. On the basis of the recent HEA report, A Study of Non-Completion In Undergraduate University Courses, one now knows the fate of that year's class. The three emerging universities (Dublin City University, Limerick and my own college, NUI Maynooth) have markedly lower average success rates than Cork, Galway, Trinity or UCD.
But what do the data presented in simple comparative form and expressed in leaguetable format really mean? Starkly, and simply, the report demonstrates that if the 1992 entrant had more than 440 CAO points, their success rate would be high. If they had obtained a place in a professional course such as medicine, dentistry, veterinary or law, they would have had a significantly greater chance of graduating than had they been registered for computer science, science or arts.
In a study of 74 English universities, Prof Mantz Yorke found that 87 per cent of the variance in non-completion was explained by two variables: (a) the percentage of students from working-class backgrounds, and (b) the percentage of mature students.
Students with no family tradition of higher education and lacking neighbourhood peer support found it exceedingly difficult to adjust to the social, educational and financial demands of unfamiliar university life.
Similarly mature entrants, due to ongoing family and financial responsibilities and other personal reasons, found great difficulty in adapting to a regime of full-time study. If such findings are applicable to Ireland, it should scarcely be a surprise that universities which have a higher than average share of non-standard entrants should produce higher than average non-completion rates.
NUI Maynooth, which for more than a decade, has had the highest percentage of lower socioeconomic groups and mature students would therefore be statistically most likely to have the highest non-completion rates of the seven universities. Disappointingly, but unsurprisingly, the statistical probability has proven true in this HEA report.
There is a potential conflict between widening access to university and maintaining high completion rates. If Government policy and social justice favour the former, there is a clear imperative to recognise that widened social access requires a new approach to student and institutional support.
The funding of all students across divergent institutions at a common unit cost ignores the reality that the playing pitch is not level for all institutions, nor for all classes of students within them. Perhaps one valid interpretation of the HEA report is that it portrays an Irish university system which is not homogeneous, not because of differences in non-completion rates, but because some universities are more privileged in their middle-class composition than those which have had a long tradition of social inclusiveness.
Support to correct this imbalance will be expensive, but it may be more honest to admit that than to ignore the inherent conflict between a political policy of inclusive access and a university's implied moral responsibility to minimise non-completion rates.
The responsibility for dealing with the pattern described in the report extends beyond government to include an institutional response. Universities must devise appropriate and effective ways to reform and stimulate the learning environment.
There is no point in simply bemoaning the growth in student numbers and the increasing divergence of their intellectual ability. With the huge increase in student numbers - almost half of the school-leaving cohort now proceed to third level - a new set of challenges has emerged. It is too simple to blame the student and ignore the quality of teaching. Large-scale enrolments and the assistance of modern technology provide the challenge and opportunity for rethinking the learning environment.
Finally, it must also be recognised that difficulties in second-level education, especially in the sciences and mathematics, translate directly into impediments in university. Remedial action in terms of curriculum design and teaching practice, together with an informed and supportive school guidance system at second level, are the prerequisites for success in third level.
So what then does the Report on Non-Completion really mean? Its value lies more in the questions the tabulated data might provoke rather than in the limited analysis presented within it. In raising those questions, the HEA, the universities, the second-level educational system, and students must take a share of the responsibility for establishing the conditions for an improved future. If the report is to be more than a presentation of a league table of seven with a potential name-and-shame outcome, it should be read with imagination, insight and a genuine shared commitment to reconciling the inherent conflict between wider access and higher completion rates.
Seamus Smyth is president of NUI Maynooth