"What is the point of a party that hinges everything on Europe if that party is heading for extinction?" So asked the Daily Mail in a front page editorial this week advising the 318,000 Conservative Party members to vote for Mr Kenneth Clarke as leader in his contest with Mr Iain Duncan Smith.
The newspaper's question goes to the nub of the issue facing the Tories. Mr Clarke's greater appeal to British voters is quite clear in the opinion polls, even if his liberal and Europhile policies more sharply divide the party's ranks. Mr Duncan Smith stands decidedly on its right wing. He is an outright opponent of the euro and calls for a renegotiation of the UK's EU membership and a new relationship with North America. He wants to see deep cuts in public services to allow for more tax cuts.
In contrast Mr Clarke favours the euro (although he would abstain in a parliamentary vote on it) and wants to see a wholehearted British participation in the EU. He thinks voters are more concerned with better public services than paying less tax. He believes a mixed economy with substantial social services is a necessary part of a modern Britain. Indeed, he says, "the country still has to decide what is its role in the modern world. Does it like the modern world?"
A realignment of British politics in which the Liberal Democrats replace the Tories as the principal opposition party is quite possible. That is the warning from Mr Francis Maude, formerly Mr Michael Portillo's campaign manager, who is now backing Mr Clarke. This week, the campaign became more aggressive, as Mrs Margaret Thatcher joined the outgoing leader, Mr William Hague, in supporting Mr Duncan Smith, while Mr John Major plumped for Mr Clarke.
The pure right-wing programme offered by Mr Duncan Smith has greater appeal for many Conservative members than for the parliamentary party. The members' average age is well over 60. Unlike the Labour Party in the early 1980s, which retained its trade union organisational base despite being thrashed by Mrs Thatcher at the polls, the Conservatives no longer enjoy core business support. That makes the next leader's electoral potential a critical issue.
Mr Clarke can clearly do the most damage to Mr Blair and court back voters who have swung away from the Conservatives. A victory for him would make it easier for Mr Blair to run a referendum on joining the euro. Although the the euro remains unpopular with voters, it is not as central an issue as the Tory's Europhobe wing assumes. It is very much in Ireland's interest that Britain should come to terms with the modern world by resolving this issue. A victory for Mr Clarke would help to ensure it does so.