CANDIDATES ARE out knocking on doors and political parties are at full stretch as campaigns to elect representatives to the Dáil, the European Parliament and to local authorities get under way. Outcomes from the various contests, driven by voter resentment over falling living standards, could shatter the established hegemony of Fianna Fáil and provide an environment for radical political change. Alternatively, the public may choose to perpetuate that party’s dominance of the political system.
Taoiseach Brian Cowen has already insisted the results will not cause a general election. The Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny and Labour Party leader Eamon Gilmore have vociferously demanded such a contest. A better option for them may involve waiting until after the December Budget and the imposition of further fiscal pain. Within Government, the Green Party is concentrating on implementing its policies and shows no obvious sign of quitting the stage.
Politics, of course, is not always controlled by intent. As Harold Macmillan, a former British prime minister once explained, governments are blown off course by “events, dear boy, events”. If Fianna Fáil does particularly badly in the elections of June 5th, pressure on Mr Cowen and his Government will become intense. But the window of opportunity for an early general election is extremely limited. The promised autumn referendum on the Lisbon Treaty could act as a lifeline for Mr Cowen. With the three major parties committed to its adoption in the national interest, its passage will be treated as a priority. Success on that front could steady Fianna Fáil nerves.
Debate on the need for political reform at Dáil and local government level has been largely absent, in spite of a Fine Gael policy document and indications of intent from Minister for the Environment John Gormley. While the number of Irish seats in the European Parliament has fallen by 20 per cent in the past 30 years, local government and Dáil representation remains unchanged. At the same time, costs have soared. Councillors receive an average of €33,000 in payments, allowances and expenses, even though power is concentrated in the hands of officials. Remuneration levels, allowances and unvouched expenses for TDs have also become a source of controversy.
It is not just the pay and expenses of elected representatives that cause concern. The recession has focussed attention on our political system and its effectiveness in a way that has not happened since the last economic crisis of the 1980’s. Maybe this could have the positive effect of engaging younger people with politics.
One way or another, we are embarking on a series of elections which could influence the life of this Coalition Government, fatally damage its authority and, potentially, lead the way to a new political alignment in the not-too-distant future. These elections will also have a resonance abroad when the future of Mr Declan Ganley’s party, Libertas, will seal its fate not only here in Ireland but in other European states. These are an important set of elections.