LUCK CAN play an important role in politics. And, for the moment, Sinn Féin’s luck appears to be out. Its ardfheis deliberations last weekend were drowned out by the sound of marching feet on the streets of Dublin. And while complaints about Government incompetence, banking scandals and falling living standards might have been common features of the two events, the bulk of media coverage went to trade unions.
Still, public anger against the Government remains to be harnessed and, in his presidential address, Gerry Adams appealed to voters to root out corruption and build a new society. With the local and European elections only four months away, the party is expected to make gains.
Sinn Féin has learned from past mistakes. Last year, buoyed by Assembly election results and its entry into government in the North, it fought the general election on a slogan of “sharing power in the North and ready for government in the South”. But its anxiety to do a deal with Fianna Fáil, the development of a presidential-style battle between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael and Mr Adams’s poor grasp of economic matters all conspired to thwart that ambition. It lost one of its five Dáil seats.
This time, there is no talk of a deal with either Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael. Instead, the party has suggested a deal with the Labour Party, the Green Party and other smaller groups. As a proposition, it is unlikely to attract immediate or enthusiastic attention.
The party made deliberate efforts at the ardfheis to appeal to the electorate in the Republic. Debate was centred around issues arising south of the Border. The dominance of a Northern leadership was played down. Promotion of European election candidates featured heavily. On the basis of recent opinion polls, the party could do well. Support has increased from 7 to 9 per cent since the general election. And while Gerry Adams has not been immune to the recent “plague on all your houses” attitude towards party leaders, the organisation still attracts large numbers of young, lower income supporters. Its main problem may lie in getting them out to vote.
The defeat of the Lisbon Treaty last summer gave Sinn Féin a much-needed boost in confidence, following its earlier electoral setback. Now, with another referendum planned and the public mood altering, it is boxing clever. Mr Adams declared his support for the European project, but repeated his criticisms of the original Lisbon Treaty as a dilution of democracy and a move towards militarism. If the Government tried to foist that document on the public, Sinn Féin would say “No” again.
The benefits of a single all-Ireland economy were promoted, along with the progress being made by Sinn Féin ministers in government in Northern Ireland. And while Mr Adams excoriated corrupt bankers and called for the resignation of Government here, his ideas on restructuring the economy were unconvincing. In spite of that, the promise of financial reform and a competent government will resonate with many voters.