In dealing with Northern Ireland, the British Prime Minister, Mr Blair, has one substantial advantage over his predecessor; with a sizeable majority he is unencumbered by the problems of parliamentary arithmetic and is free to shape his own agenda, Even allowing for this, Mr Blair's commitment to progress in the Northern peace process during his first frenetic seven weeks in power has been quite remarkable. Mr Blair has placed the Northern Ireland issue at the top of his political agenda. There has been none of the weary resignation that has periodically marked British policy on the North. Rather, there has been a steely determination to rebuild the peace without any further delay. In his address to the Commons yesterday, he underlined the importance of moving swiftly. "There is no time to waste. The situation on the ground in Northern Ireland is very fragile", he said.
Mr Blair used the Commons speech to draw together the various strands of his Northern Ireland initiative; the launch of substantive political negotiations on September 15th with a view to an agreement by next May; the establishment of the Independent Commission on decommissioning and an entree for Sinn Fein into the talks six weeks after the declaration of an unequivocal ceasefire.
This is an imaginative and generous offer. Mr Blair has clearly decided to go the extra mile for peace but Sinn Fein and its fellow travellers in the IRA more especially after the murders in Lurgan must know that this is Mr Blair's last and best offer. If they reject this, they are to be cast out. The settlement, train, as he put it in very stark terms, is indeed leaving with or without Sinn Fein. Indeed it is not insignificant that the SDLP leader, Mr John Hume, who is better placed than most to understand the Republican psyche, accepts that Sinn Fein and the IRA can no longer duck and weave on their participation in the talks. They have run out of rope.
As our London Editor reports in today's editions, both Governments have delivered a five week ultimatum to the IRA. And they have given the negotiating parties, notably the Ulster Unionists, a similar timeframe to decide if they are prepared to remove the decommissioning roadblock.
To date, the response to the package from Sinn Fein has been reasonably encouraging; in his statement last night, Mr Gerry Adams cautioned that the devil may be in the detail on decommissioning but he has not closed off any options. For his part, the Ulster Unionist leader, Mr David Trimble, has still to give a detailed response but he will know that a failure to engage with this process could leave him with nothing to build upon. All sides might be mindful of Mr Blair's words in the Commons; Accommodation need not be a dirty word when human lives may be at stake.
It is critical, of course, that the political atmosphere is not poisoned by events at Drumcree on Sunday week next. Dr Mowlam's decision to convene so called "proximity talks" between the Orange Order and the Garvaghy Road residents at Hillsborough on Friday may be a useful if belated, step in seeking an agreed formula or, perhaps, some understanding aimed at damage limitation. The Orange Order has insisted that it does not want a repeat of last year's inflammatory scenes; Dr Mowlam is challenging its members to be as good as their word.