The latest jobless figures provide encouraging evidence that the boom in the economy is, at last, having a real impact on unemployment. When seasonally adjusted, the Live Register figure for last month is 256,000, a decrease of 4,600 on the March figure; it is the first time since 1991 that the Live Register has been under 260,000. There are particularly positive signals when one compares the latest figures to the situation twelve months ago; in this period there has been a decrease of almost 26,000 in the numbers signing on.
The robust state of the economy and the record levels of job creation are clearly contributing to the decline in the numbers on the Live Register. But it would also appear that the high profile crackdown on fraud in the social welfare system is having the desired effect. On the basis of the latest forecast from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), the unemployment figures should continue to decline. This week, the ESRI's Medium Term Review projected an unemployment rate of only about half of the current rate of 12 per cent by 2007.
But there is also the persistent sense that the rising tide is failing to lift all boats. Unemployment may be falling but it is also the case that one in twelve people of working age will remain without a job through the longest economic boom in Irish history. Long term unemployment, in particular, remains stubbornly high; indeed there is a strong sense that the current economic good times are simply by passing tens of thousands of people who lack the requisite education and experience to pick up one of the new employment opportunities.
The sharp decrease in unemployment levels over the past year provides a unique opportunity to give these people the ability to help themselves. This has provided the Government with Exchequer savings of an estimated £90 million in the past year. Clearly some of this money should be spent on measures to assist the long term unemployed; fresh incentives are required to make this group more attractive to employers and to give them the flexibility and training they require.
The Government, in fairness, has made a significant effort to address the root causes of the problem. The importance of new initiatives such as the targeting of schools in disadvantaged areas, the new Job Opportunities programme and the doubling of the Community Employment schemes should not be underestimated. A White Paper on Training is also due to be published shortly and has the potential to make an important contribution. As the recent ESRI medium term review made clear, training and education can make a key contribution to tackling long term unemployment.