"You like to be independent? You will have nothing!" This was how Bishop Carlos Belo of East Timor summarised the vicious campaign against supporters of independence mounted by paramilitary forces over last weekend in which at least 13 people died. He was speaking to the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr David Andrews, in the capital Dili. Mr Andrews's welcome initiative in going to Indonesia and East Timor has been amply, indeed courageously, vindicated by these grave events. He has been able to make graphic representations at the highest levels and to reinforce Ireland's and the European Union's serious concern about them.
His visit came just ahead of the meeting in New York tomorrow between the Indonesian foreign minister, Mr Ali Alitas, his Portuguese counterpart and the United Nations Secretary General, Mr Kofi Annan. They are to consider Indonesia's offer of autonomy for East Timor to be voted on in a referendum planned for July. The alternative is independence, a commitment announced in January by President Habibie, which he repeated to Mr Andrews when they met in Jakarta. But it is fundamentally compromised by the campaign of terror and intimidation launched in East Timor by supporters of integration with Indonesia, which has the full support of the governor, Mr Abilio Soares.
As a result of this campaign, many people have lost their lives and it has become impossible for supporters of independence to identify themselves openly. If the referendum is to go ahead on time, the paramilitaries must be withdrawn and the military forces, which have armed them and stood aside from their rampages, must be disciplined. It would also be necessary to install a substantial United Nations force to oversee the ballot. The Indonesian army chief of staff, General Wiranto, was yesterday en route to East Timor to check out these matters. Many observers believe the armed forces have set their faces against the independence option in the belief that it would set dangerous precedents for other parts of the vast Indonesian archipelago, such as Aceh, Maluku, Iran Jaya and Ambon, which are currently in the throes of deep civil and ethnic turmoil.
In these circumstances, it is questionable how much the government is in control of events. Military and regional interests are able to assert themselves against the ostensible centres of control from Jakarta. It is notable that other governments in the Asian region are more and more alert to the possibility of political disintegration in Indonesia. The Australian prime minister, Mr Howard, is to visit there next month. Since Australia is the only state to have recognised Indonesian sovereignty over East Timor, which it invaded in 1975 and annexed the following year from Portugal, its colonial ruler, this is especially significant.
East Timor has become an important issue in Irish foreign policy over recent years, not least as a result of the tireless campaign mounted by Mr Tom Hyland, who accompanied Mr Andrews on his visit, in an interesting diplomatic innovation. As it heads into the most testing period in its history, Mr Andrews must now do his best to ensure the territory receives the sympathy and solidarity it deserves from Ireland, the EU and the UN.