Stephen Collins: Jury out on the new politics

As the Dáil adjusts to the new politics the big imponderable is whether it will prove to be a better way of doing the people’s business or mark a slide into dangerous populism that undoes the years of hard work it took to put the economy to right.

Events of the past week have given contradictory answers to that question, and it will not become clear for some time what the consequences of the new politics are going to be.

Many TDs are still scratching their heads in bewilderment at having the world they know turned upside down.

Some Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil Deputies make no bones about the fact that they are having trouble adjusting to the notion that the old rules of government versus opposition no longer apply.

“I would much rather know which side of the fence I am supposed to be on,” said one Fianna Fáil TD, while Fine Gael counterparts mutter about being in government but not in power.

What really troubles TDs of both parties is that they can’t work out which of them is going to benefit most if the arrangement works, but there is broad agreement that whichever of them brings it to an end is likely to suffer most.

The bewilderment goes farther than the two big parties. Smaller parties and Independents are finding it more difficult to get media coverage for knee-jerk denunciations of every action of Government because it is no longer quite clear who the target should be.

What disgruntled TDs are ignoring is that the old Punch and Judy way of doing politics was no longer working. That manifested itself in the inconclusive general election result, and the Dáil had to find a way of responding to the outcome.

One positive over the past week was that the Government managed to make big decisions on the allocation of extra resources for important public services.

In particular, the provision of an extra €500 million for the health service was an acknowledgement that the predictable massive budget overruns that emerge every autumn had to be faced up to earlier.

Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform Paschal Donohoe made the point that the health service will have €800 million more this year than last, and really tough questions about how it manages its affairs will have to be confronted if it is not able to stay within the new budget

The extra money for health and another €40 million for the Garda to fight gangland crime will come from better-than-expected tax returns and the extra room for manoeuvre generated by stronger economic growth than forecast in the budget.

“We are determined to use the benefits of a growing economy to deliver improved services for people,” Donohoe told journalists.

That is all very fine as far as it goes and it involves a recognition that in the election campaign Fine Gael badly misjudged the public mood on the need for better public services.

Political problem

The worry, though, is that the recourse to extra spending in health could mark the first step in a concerted raid on the exchequer for money to throw at every issue that poses a political problem for the Government.

If some outside event like Brexit or another euro zone crisis suddenly derails the positive economic growth and tax revenue figures, then we could find ourselves back in the mire very quickly.

The warnings by the fiscal council during the week were a timely reminder of the need for prudence and of the danger that things could go wrong if circumstances change to the country’s disadvantage.

If unforeseen events trigger a change for the worse in the coming months, the Government’s survival could quickly be in jeopardy.

On top of the routine problem faced by all politicians in power that there are no votes in belt-tightening, this Government faces the added one that it could lose an important Dáil division if it has to take tough action, no matter how necessary that might be.

However, as long as the economic weather remains fair, the Government has a good chance of surviving for the three budgets as agreed.

The Fine Gael response to the Fianna Fáil Private Member’s motion on spiralling insurance costs during the week was an example of the new politics in action.

The motion was accepted by the Government rather than being amended or voted down, as would have automatically happened in the past.

Far from undermining the process of government, acceptance of the motion to establish a task force to examine insurance costs should result in a proper investigation of the issue.

The deal between the two big parties which saw the election of Fianna Fáil’s Denis O’Donovan as cathaoirleach of the Seanad was another example of the new arrangements working.

Committee chairs

The allocation of committee chairs across all the parties and groupings was another positive step along the road to giving the Dáil more power and making TDs of all parties and none more accountable for their actions.

One important issue that nobody has figured out is when Enda Kenny is going to step down as Taoiseach.

His departure and the election of a new leader could trigger an end to the deal between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. This creates an incentive for TDs in both parties that Kenny should remain in office for the foreseeable future.

Kenny still has the backing of a solid majority of his parliamentary party, if the election of Martin Haydon as chairman of the Fine Gael parliamentary party is anything to go by. Haydon defeated Pat Deering, regarded as the candidate of the discounted, by two to one, so Kenny is secure at present and the show goes on.