Russia has reacted defiantly to western criticism of its ultimatum to residents of Grozny. The prime minister, Mr Vladimir Putin, has told the west either to mind its own business or to apply pressure on the Chechens to surrender. In the middle of an election campaign these hard words will probably gain votes for Mr Putin's supporters.
They may also cost lives. Most civilians trapped in the Chechen capital are elderly or infirm and incapable of escaping unaided. If they had been able to get out, they would have done so by now. Others who live in the city's basements are too poor to able to pay the bribes demanded by members of Mr Putin's forces. Young Russian conscripts are also losing their lives and being brutalised in the course of this campaign. Sending them into battle without proper training verges on the criminal. There are strong indications that while support for the war in Moscow and St Petersburg remains high, it has begun to decline in the bleak provincial towns and cities where the conscripts have been levied.
Perhaps where exhortation has failed to convince Russia to soften its campaign and pay greater heed to the plight of civilians, the power of hard cash from abroad and changing public opinion at home may have a more salutary effect. The International Monetary Fund has not given Chechnya as their reason for withholding a loan of $640 million, but Mr Putin clearly believes that the conflict in the north Caucasus is behind the move. There have been strong suspicions in the past that IMF money has been improperly used in Russia; despite Mr Putin's claims that the organisation is acting politically outside its remit, it does have the right to ensure that its loans are used for peaceful purposes.
No country disputes Russia's need to put down banditry and terrorism and there is no doubt whatsoever that both abound in Chechnya. The territory's elected president, Mr Aslan Maskhadov, has signally failed to effect the rule of law. What western leaders are protesting against is the indiscriminate and overwhelming use of force which Russia is employing. In simple terms, a sledgehammer is being used to crack a nut.
There are also grave fears about what may happen when Grozny falls, as it is likely to do, to superior Russian weaponry and manpower. A protracted guerrilla war involving the further loss of unwilling young Russian conscripts is likely. But an end to criminality appears the least probable outcome. While Russia's claims that Chechnya has become a criminal state may have some validity, Mr Putin's appointment of Mr Beslan Gantemirov to run Chechnya is paradoxical in the extreme. In order to take up this job, Mr Gantemirov had to be released from a Moscow prison where he was serving a sentence for embezzlement.
The prospects for Chechnya's long-term future are bleak. In the short term, however, if Russia and the Chechen insurgents pay no heed to foreign governments, they should at least listen to the human rights organisations. The well-publicised and properly-monitored ceasefires they have called for, might at least save the remaining residents of Grozny from a bloodbath.