Will Gerry Adams's refusal to give evidence to a US congressional committee on alleged links between the IRA and the Colombian terrorist group FARC mark the beginning of the end of Sinn Féin's aspiration to be an all-Ireland political party, asks Mary Holland.
Obviously, that will depend to some extent on what emerges in Washington over the next few days. The omens are not good for Mr Adams. A spokesman for the House Committee on International Relations was quoted this week as saying that the case of the three Irishmen being held in Colombia is "only the start of it".
Yesterday Gerry Moriarty, this paper's Northern Editor, wrote about allegations that up to 15 senior members of the Provisional IRA had travelled to Colombia in recent years and that the expertise which they passed on to FARC had led to the loss of innocent lives. Congressman Henry Hyde, who chairs the House committee, was unusually explicit when he referred to questions about "IRA explosives experts", which his members had hoped to put to Gerry Adams.
We know that political friends of Sinn Féin in Washington have been lobbying extremely hard to prevent these hearings from taking place and so, behind the scenes, has the Irish Government.
The harm that will be done to Sinn Féin's powerful and profitable support base in the United States will be considerable. Much of this has been built on Gerry Adams's personal reputation as peacemaker and brilliant political strategist. Now he is likely to be judged by many people as a fraud if he was aware of what was happening in Colombia, or as lacking control of the IRA if he was ignorant of these activities.
ALREADY it is being suggested that the Colombia affair, taken in conjunction with recent events in Northern Ireland, could provoke another crisis in the peace process. John Reid insists that the IRA's ceasefire is intact, at least within the strict legal meaning of the Belfast Agreement.
Allegations, however, that the Provos were responsible for the murder of taxi-driver Barney McDonald and suspicions of the IRA's involvement in the raid on Castlereagh have caused predictable fallout. Anti-agreement unionists are circling David Trimble and, depending on what comes out of the Washington hearings about the IRA, could be gearing up for another leadership challenge.
My own view, for what it's worth, is that the Belfast Agreement is now sufficiently well bedded down to be able to resist such alarms and excursions.
As I remarked in this space last week, we have only to look at other areas of conflict in the world, particularly the Middle East, to know that we have been extremely fortunate.
This is not to belittle the concern expressed by David Trimble about the IRA's continuing involvement in criminal activities, simply to say that abhorrent as these undoubtedly are, they do not constitute a serious threat to the peace process. They do, however, damage the credibility of Gerry Adams and those close to him as being seriously committed to democratic politics.
That may not matter very much in Northern Ireland where Sinn Féin's traditional support base is unlikely to be much concerned about the events in Colombia. The whiff of cordite has never been a particular deterrent to voters in Tyrone and West Belfast.
The electorate in this State is likely to see things differently. First a note of caution: Sinn Féin's relatively poor showing in recent opinion polls should be taken with a pinch of salt. We have learnt over the years that a proportion of those questioned, for understandable reasons, have always been reluctant to admit that they vote for Sinn Féin.
THERE are reasons, though, why Adams's refusal to give evidence to committees of the Oireachtas and the US House of Representatives is likely to damage Sinn Féin's prospects in the coming elections. First, it deals a significant blow to Adams's own credibility not only as a peacemaker but as a relatively honest politician. Did he or did he not know what the IRA was doing in Colombia?
His failure to answer this simple question will put off voters who might otherwise have been prepared to give Sinn Féin candidates a chance in recognition of the part that Gerry Adams and his colleagues have played in bringing peace to Northern Ireland.
Just as important, it will weaken Sinn Féin's ability to present itself as a fresh, radical party likely to appeal to those who traditionally do not use their vote. In the North, the party's greatest strength has been its capacity to get young apathetic voters to the polls, particularly in socially deprived constituencies.
Even voting for Sinn Féin was a gesture of defiance against the system.
I'm not suggesting that the IRA's activities in Colombia are likely to be of much concern to young voters in inner city constituencies in Dublin and Cork, but Adams's failure to answer questions has taken the sheen off the Sinn Féin leader, just at the time when his party's candidates in this State need it most.
mholland@irish-time.ie