TODAY'S Irish Times/TNSmrbi opinion poll findings on the Lisbon Treaty provide the first chink of optimism that voters may be willing to support the treaty in a fresh referendum if it is modified to allow Ireland retain an EU commissioner and if Irish concerns about neutrality, abortion and taxation are clarified in special declarations.
Definite swings among middle-class and middle-aged voters in support of the treaty compared with last June's referendum show that modifications along these lines could be acceptable to the electorate. These findings should strengthen the Government's political confidence and resolve as it prepares a strategy on Lisbon for next month's European Council.
That there is a reasonable prospect of winning a second referendum will come as a relief to those who believe the treaty is made more necessary by dramatically changed economic and political circumstances at home and abroad. They include governments of the other 26 member states saying renegotiation of the treaty is unacceptable to them. They want to ratify and implement it as rapidly as possible to bolster the EU's position in international negotiations on the credit crunch, the Group of 20 talks held in Washington at the weekend, and in forthcoming climate change bargaining.
Ireland faces a grave choice between remaining in the EU mainstream by finding a constructive way out of the Lisbon dilemma or risking isolation if others go ahead without us. The economic costs and political consequences of the decision to reject the treaty last June are being steadily brought home. If Ireland is perceived internationally as rich and selfish or indifferent to the desire of others for closer integration, foreign direct investment will be affected. It will become more difficult to find allies in protecting vital interests like taxation and our influence in political, climate and security negotiations will diminish.
The Government must decide in the coming weeks whether and when to hold another referendum and whether to seek changes along the lines suggested in this opinion poll or go further by negotiating more radical opt-outs, for example from the EU's security and foreign policies or from the Charter on Fundamental Rights appended to the treaty. The profound changes in the international environment increase the pressure to respond clearly. It will be able to draw on the work done by the Oireachtas subcommittee on Ireland's future in Europe, which should make recommendations by the end of this month.
Ireland's interests would be best served by holding another referendum on a modified Lisbon Treaty. This poll shows it is winnable if the conditions suggested are achieved in negotiations. Doing that and making the political arguments for them can convince voters to support the treaty despite the Government's unpopularity. The political imperative, underpinning these findings, is that any declarations should bring clarity to the most contentious arguments last June to ensure that voters understand the issues before them.