The huge uncertainty and unseemly confusion over Mr Yasser Arafat's precise state of health eased somewhat yesterday after he was seen in Paris by a senior Muslim cleric who said he is "sick and his condition is very difficult but he remains alive".
Everything will be done to save his life if possible, but Palestinian leaders are nonetheless preparing for his funeral and a transfer of power.
His death would transform the political circumstances surrounding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, since it would enable a new leadership to engage afresh with Mr Ariel Sharon in the changed international setting created by Mr George Bush's victory in the US elections. For the sake of peace and security in the Middle East it is essential that this potentially positive opening be fully grasped by all concerned.
Palestinians are slowly coming to terms with the likely consequences of Mr Arafat's death. His long career as a nationalist guerrilla leader took off after the Six Day War of 1967 when Israel conquered the West Bank and Gaza and consolidated its occupation of the territories. As a resistance fighter against the Israelis he was ruthless; but over time he broadened that role into a full-scale political leadership of the Palestinian movement, with a comprehensive control over its public affairs. That continued through the landmark decisions of the 1980s to pursue a two-state settlement of the conflict and the prolonged but unsuccessful efforts to turn it into a reality in the 1990s, when Mr Arafat and his exile leadership returned to set up the Palestine Authority.
This failure left Mr Arafat presiding over a Palestinian society devastated by another rebellion against Israeli occupation and the harsh and brutal response to it by Mr Sharon. Increasingly his authoritarian and highly centralised control of Palestinian institutions was resented by a younger generation of leaders more rooted in the West Bank and Gaza; but their capacity to change it was highly constrained by the refusal of Mr Sharon and Mr Bush to negotiate with Mr Arafat.
A new Palestinian leadership will presumably combine elements of the newer and older generations. It must be allowed to emerge democratically through elections and open political activity over coming weeks and months. This will require the Israelis to lift sieges and checkpoints. Mr Sharon will come under pressure to release prisoners such as Marwan Barghouti, who is serving several life sentences in Israel, but who would be crucial figures in a new settlement negotiation.
Mr Sharon and members of his government are having to rethink their plan to withdraw from Gaza, as a result of Mr Arafat's illness and a likely new Palestinian leadership. Its unilateralism has been justifiably criticised by the international quartet seeking to restart settlement negotiations. Now that Mr Bush has been re-elected the time has come for him to support these efforts much more vigorously, as Mr Tony Blair will urge him to do at their meeting today. It is an opportunity not to be missed.