The results of The Irish Times - Guardian poll, published this morning, amount to a preliminary endorsement by the people of this island, North and South, of the agreement signed at Stormont on Good Friday. In Northern Ireland, 73 per cent of respondents indicated their intention of voting yes in the May 22nd referendum while 13 per cent did not state their intention. Fourteen per cent said they would vote no. Fewer in the Republic seem to be enthused by the agreement. Just 61 per cent said they would vote yes, 19 per cent are undecided and 20 per cent say they will vote no.
A poll of opinion is just that. And opinions can alter over time. But it is a positive portent, in the immediate aftermath of final agreement among the parties and with strident voices denouncing the document, that it immediately appealed to a broad sweep of the electorate. At 73 per cent in Northern Ireland, those willing to vote yes on May 22nd are coming from across the principal sectarian and political boundaries. In the Republic, a 61 per cent approval of the agreement may also be taken to be reflective of attitudes among all the main political groupings. On these figures the agreement will be endorsed in both jurisdictions in a little more than five weeks time.
Some aspects of the poll's findings bear particular consideration. There is clearly a significant gap between the thinking of many of the ordinary unionist people and those who represent them at Westminster. The difficult position in which Mr Trimble finds himself is thus underscored. He may not have the support of a majority of his parliamentary colleagues but he probably has a much wider base of approval in the party and in the community generally. His political footwork will have to be adroit if he is to prevent the enemies of the agreement from exploiting this paradox. In the Republic, it is clear that a significant minority - almost 40 per cent - see themselves either opposed to the agreement or undecided. It can be surmised that the obstacle for most of these is the proposed amendment of Articles 2 and 3. Mr Ahern is going to have to move carefully in preparing electoral opinion, for the 61 per cent figure is perhaps lower than some might have expected. Any slippage would be bad news.
The poll was taken between Holy Saturday and Tuesday of this week. Some factors in the meantime could perhaps cause the figures to vary. The release of prisoners from Portlaoise has caused alarm in some quarters - and not just among unionists. The launch of Dr Paisley's campaign against the agreement will undoubtedly have an impact. But other factors may come into play in favour of accommodation. Belfast's respected unionist newspaper the News Letter yesterday endorsed it, albeit with reservations, declaring that "many people within unionism are beginning to realise that a vibrant new Ulster.....can emerge". Voices from within the Orange Order have called for the document to be studied carefully and in its entirety before judgment is passed upon it. And yesterday the Grand Lodge stopped short of an outright rejection.
The coming weeks will be marked by levels of political activity which will be without precedent. Those in positions of influence within the churches, in education, in civic organisations, in business and industrial circles will all have the opportunity to influence the outcome of this process for good or ill. Not all of these, in the past, have always shown the qualities of leadership or principle which conditions have required. For some, it has been easier and safer to say little, to follow rather than to lead. The results of this poll should serve to fortify the faint-hearted and the waverers. They show that the majority of people, on all sides, in all communities want to move away from strife and division. They need support and leadership in that difficult transition.