The lethal attack on an Indian army base in Kashmir, in which 33 people were killed by Islamic militants, comes at an exceedingly sensitive time for relations between India and Pakistan. It was presumably intended to provoke the two states into an even more dangerous confrontation, following the terrorist attack on the Indian parliament last December and subsequent serious rioting between Hindus and Muslims. This has strained the Indian government's patience to breaking point, given that its strategy of putting pressure on Pakistan to rein in the movements responsible has been so clearly shown to fail.
Both are nuclear states, and both have threatened to use their weapons if their strategic interests are threatened. Within the Indian military the idea of a punitive strike against Pakistan has been actively canvassed. Leaders of both states face elections which will test their commitments to defend their interests in Kashmir, and which reduce their ability to be flexible.
This latest atrocity therefore makes the current visit to the two countries by Ms Christina Rocca, the US assistant secretary of state, all the more necessary. She must persuade the Indians that US policy is not tilted against them because of strategic reliance on the Pakistanis and convince the Indians that the Pakistani leader, General Musharraf, stands by his pledge made last January, to eliminate all forms of terrorism in his country. That undertaking looks hollow indeed after yesterday's events. It will require a lot more sustained US pressure on the Pakistanis to make it credible.
There is a particular onus on international mediators because of the nuclear status of both states, their huge populations, and the major regional effects of any conflict between them. They have been at war four times, three of them at Pakistan's initiative. In exploring how another war can be avoided it will be essential to address the Kashmir question substantively, as well as to prevent military engagement. As with the Belfast Agreement, it will be necessary to involve both sovereign states in the search for a settlement, in addition to representatives of the conflicting parties in Kashmir. In the short term, yesterday's attack must be condemned and efforts redoubled to prevent another resort to war.