The Russian supreme court's decision that President Yeltsin cannot stand for a third term signals the beginning of the end of one of the most extraordinary political careers of this century. It also heralds the start of the campaign to replace the ailing Mr Yeltsin. Initially hailed as the founder of Russia's new democracy, Mr Yeltsin's major achievement was to have destroyed the old Soviet system. His personal attributes uniquely suited him to that task but he was unable to cope with building a new society on the ruins of the old.
His judgment in choosing close associates has been suspect: former vice-president Mr Alexander Rutskoy, former speaker Mr Ruslan Khasbulatov, ex-KGB General Alexander Korzhakov and the discredited privatisation chief Mr Anatoly Chubais were all appointed and then sacked by the president. In the course of Mr Yeltsin's terms in office more people were killed at the hands of the State than at any time since the death of Stalin. Estimates of the number of unarmed civilians who died in the carpet bombing and shelling of Chechnya range from 30,000 to 90,000.
Now, following eight years of Mr Yeltsin's presidency, Russia faces economic collapse. Banks have closed. The middle class which was to have been the economic, social and cultural driving force of the new Russia has been wiped out as quickly, if not as violently, as the Kulaks were liquidated in the early days of the Stalin regime.
Mr Yeltsin, paradoxically, has been supported in the vast majority of his erratic actions by western countries who were afraid of who might replace him. The shelling of parliament, the Chechen war, bizarre appearances and disappearances abroad, were all tolerated faute de mieux by the West's guardians of democracy. It is clear that the politician who takes over from Mr Yeltsin will face enormous tasks and responsibilities. A leader of exceptional qualities will be required and at present no such person seems available.
The charismatic General Alexander Lebed, a teetotaler, has shown signs of being every bit as politically unpredictable as President Yeltsin. Moscow's Mayor, Mr Yuri Luzhkov, while having worked wonders in turning a dilapidated capital into a vibrant modern city tends towards the dictatorial, does not score highly in the area of human rights and is something of a Great Russian chauvinist. The current Prime Minister will be in his seventies when the elections take place in 2000.
One politician in Russia who may have the required talents is Mr Grigory Yavlinsky of the liberal Yabloko party. He has consistently refused to be drawn into corrupt Kremlin circles, has shown an unerring capacity for the democratic option in each of Russia's many political crises and was instrumental in getting the Duma to resolve the chaos which followed devaluation and the end of Mr Sergei Kiriyenko's short term as Prime Minister. His great weakness consists of a haughty intellectual image which significantly reduces his appeal to the electorate. Compared to the weaknesses of the other candidates it is a fault that, in these days of image-making, could be overcome with a little effort.