Next week will see another attempt to break the deadlock over the decommissioning of paramilitary arms which has led to the suspension of the Northern Ireland political institutions. The Taoiseach, the British Prime Minister, The Minister for Foreign Affairs and the Northern Ireland Secretary along with representatives of the main pro-Agreement parties in the Assembly will meet at Downing Street on Tuesday. It will not be a make-or-break day. But it will mark the opening of a process or sequence which it is hoped to have completed by May 22nd, the second anniversary of the ratification of the Belfast Agreement.
Time is short if the institutions are to be revived. The early stirrings of the marching season have already taken place. Drumcree and July 12th are less than three months away. Any receptiveness to urgings of compromise and moderation will diminish with each passing week. Realistically, if something cannot be put together which enables the institutions to come back to life within the next few weeks, they are unlikely to be revived in the short term, if at all. The best intelligence suggests that the Taoiseach and the Prime Minister are resolved that the unionists and Sinn Fein will have to do business and that they are not prepared to take no - in any guise - for an answer.
But all parties - and both governments - know that unless the republican movement authorises Sinn Fein to commit it to movement, nothing will happen. Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern may call down political thunderbolts. But unless Sinn Fein can offer verifiable progress on decommissioning, or in some other way confirm that the war is permanently over, time spent at Downing Street next week will be time wasted. Mr Trimble has indicated that he is prepared to make a new attempt at a settlement without weapons up front. It is up to the Sinn Fein/IRA axis now to show what, if anything, it is willing to do.
Analysts have scanned the IRA's pre-Easter statement for signs of any such flexibility. Mr Trimble declared that the statement represented no advance on what had been said before. But according to some interpretations it has the IRA acknowledging the need for a permanent peace. If this is so, it may be possible for Sinn Fein's representatives to come to Downing Street on Tuesday with authority to sign up for some sequencing of statements or for an undertaking to have the IRA return to its earlier dialogue with General de Chastelain.
It is recognised and understood that the suspension of the institutions by Mr Mandelson caused serious problems for the Sinn Fein leadership with the more hawkish elements of the IRA. But equally it appears that Sinn Fein had entered the executive without any real acceptance that suspension would follow if there were to be no progress on decommissioning. Hopefully, by now there is an understanding that participation in democracy is not compatible with maintaining a private army which is armed and willing to engage in so-called military action. If that comprehension is now embedded in republican thinking, all other parties will go to the greatest lengths to make Sinn Fein's complete entry into parliamentary politics as easy as possible.
There is much that the two governments can do to help Mr Gerry Adams and his lieutenants win the argument against their more hardline colleagues. Progress can be made towards demilitarisation in sensitive districts. There must be a steadfast adherence to the recommendations of the Patten Commission and the commission on the administration of justice. These must be implemented swiftly and without dilution. But the principal key to unlocking the door to progress is in the hands of the republicans themselves. Next week will tell if they have the wisdom to recognise that and to use it.