Once again the people of Japan are being called to the polling booths and again they will ponder the point of it all when the Government which is returned seems certain to be similar to its predecessor. The Liberal Democrat Party (LDP) is confidently predicted to return to government but in a coalition. It remains the dominant force and yet it will depend on the support of smaller parties which then wield a disproportionate influence on policy.
The LDP hierarchy reckons that the party just might get a mandate with an overall majority. It expects a substantial sympathy vote from the untimely death last month of its popular Prime Minister, Mr Keizo Obuchi. To capitalise on it, the election has been brought forward three months. And just in case the electorate has short memories, the LDP this Thursday will put on a huge funeral for Mr Obuchi despite the fact that he told his family he wanted a quiet send-off. In addition, polling day has been set for Mr Obuchi's birthday and the LDP candidate for his seat is his daughter, Yuko, a 26 year-old political novice.
The election will be fought on the economy, if the Prime Minister, Mr Yoshiro Mori, gets his way because the economy is recovering but his popularity is not. Opinion polls last week recorded his approval rating at 21 per cent and that of his cabinet at only 12 per cent. Mr Mori succeeded Mr Obuchi primarily because he was a loyal supporter of his and, more importantly, because he heads up the LDP's third largest faction. As ever, the LDP is driven by power groups rather than policies and a member's connections are everything.
But Mr Mori is a mere shadow of his predecessor and has an unfortunate capacity for speaking without thinking. This was amply illustrated two weeks ago when he announced that Japan "is a divine country with the emperor at its core". So much for the principles of democracy and the constitutional separation of religion and politics that the government is meant to stand for. So much for the emperor relinquishing his divinity. Mr Mori was talking to right-wing Shinto parliamentarians who still hanker for the days when Japan had military muscle and the emperor was divine so he presumably thought he would tell them something they would like to hear. He should have thought twice.
In addition, the economy might not be a vote-winner. True, the recession has ended at last but the economy remains heavily over-regulated and deep in debt. Last week the IMF said that a supplementary budget may be needed to stop the economy tumbling back into recession. Japan has some serious hurdles to overcome. Unemployment at 3.5 million has reached crisis point, especially among the young. The country is deeply unsure how it should relate to its neighbours, particularly China, and it is in a crux over missile defence. What Japan does not need is another weak coalition in which a faction-driven LDP must yield undue influence to minority partners. Unfortunately, the indications are that this is exactly what Japan will get.