The usual belief that governments lose elections, oppositions don't win them, may not be valid in the general election that looms in Britain in the next eight months. After an unprecedented four terms in office, even the most sanguine Tory must find it verging on the unbelievable that Mr Major will sail against the odds as he did last time and manage to carry off a fifth successive victory. Too many traditional party supporters have been alienated - from the farmers to the elderly - for a turn around to seem possible at this late stage.
But Mr Blair, riding on the crest of a wave of public support, is unlikely to have forgotten the salutary lesson of Mr Kinnock's abject defeat just days after his ill judged premature celebration (as it seemed) in Sheffield. If he is not Britain's next prime minister, it will be because of his failure to convince the electorate that New Labour has genuinely discarded its ideological baggage. The Tory advertising campaign, with its "demon eyes" poster and its concentration on the ambiguities of Labour's taxation policy, accurately pinpoints the uncertainties which he must quell. The recent spate of criticism of his leadership style from the left wing of the party is a continual reminder of the unfinished debate on policy which is likely to resurface if and when a Labour government is elected to office.
Mr Blair's performance at the Confederation of British Industry yesterday was a crucial part of the strategy to win acceptance as the spokesman for the broad middle section of British politics, which the Conservatives, preoccupied with their quarrels over Europe and their the ideological battles between left and right, have largely relinquished. If he can secure endorsement by significant elements in the business community, then the effect of Tory rubbishing of his economic and fiscal policies can be deflected.
Whether he succeeded is too early to say. His own commitment to change reflecting the evolution of society in Britain is not in doubt; so too is his advocacy of economic policies encouraging business growth. Areas like the minimum wage, the Social Chapter and the windfall tax, representing the essential requirements of social justice, are not the sort of issues likely to bring businessmen to the barricades, not least because of their relatively restricted impact. But the problem of persuading the owners and main beneficiaries of the means of production that policy won't shift when the votes have been counted and the new ministers installed has still to be addressed successfully. The "demon eyes" are a powerful and insidious argument.
What is clear is that a Labour victory, even more than in 1992, is a vital necessity for Britain. Eighteen years in power is far too long for any political party in a democratic state, and a return of the Tories must inevitably signal a further stagnation of politics which will be dominated by the internecine squabbles of the party in office. It is symptomatic of the low level of debate that the Labour proposal of an eventual 10p or 15p bottom income tax rate, designed to remove some of the burden from the poorest taxpayers, should be derided as an extravagant nonsense when it is clear that it can be accompanied by a change of tax bands shifting the burden to those better able to pay. That, of course, will cause some potential new Labour voters to forget the urgent need to rebalance social advantage.