Only those gravely susceptible to optimism and that to the point of naivety would have expected any measurable movement on the North within the octave of Mr Tony Blair's installation in Downing Street. In some respects it has been a week depressingly like many others. A young man dies from injuries inflicted by a sectarian mob. Mr Gerry Adams and his spokesmen recycle their tired scripts calling for an end to all violence. And senior politicians - this time the Taoiseach, Mr Bruton - cast yet another baited line to Sinn Fein and the IRA, offering access to the multiparty talks.
And yet it has been a week of important first steps which has perhaps also witnessed a quickening of Mr Blair's interest in Ireland. He has seen Mr Hume, Mr Trimble and Mr Bruton. He meets Mr Trimble again next week and shortly he will see President Clinton with Ireland on the agenda, it has been acknowledged. This week also Dr Mowlam has announced some significant confidence building measures. For all the excellent work undertaken by the great majority of the membership of the RUC, some simple changes in its methods of local accountability and consultation, for example, are long overdue. And in addressing the parades issue, the Secretary of State has sent a clear signal that this British government will not calmly watch in July if mob rule attempts to face down the authority of the state.
Thursday's meeting between Mr Bruton and Mr Blair did not yield a significant joint statement or anything which a Taoiseach might consider especially useful as he faces into a general election campaign. Indeed, London was quick to put clear space between its own position and Mr Bruton's declaration that Sinn Fein could find itself at the conference table on June 3rd if a convincing ceasefire were to be declared right away. Mr Blair and Dr Mowlam are not going to rush to welcome Sinn Fein to the table a fortnight after its IRA associates have brought chaos to Britain's transportation systems.
It is right that Mr Blair and Dr Mowlam should make haste slowly. Getting Sinn Fein to the table will be a hollow achievement if the unionists are not there too. The election results have undoubtedly strengthened Mr David Trimble's hand but if he is to bring his people with him into a successful talks process they must see that the new British government is not going to bully him. Dr Mowlam has worked long and hard at establishing a reputation for evenhandedness. It could easily be destroyed if her government were seen to be overanxious in responding to Dublin's position.
That the leadership of Sinn Fein is now more eager than ever to get into the political process is plain enough. They secured two MPs and a record vote of 127,000 in the election gone by. The local elections will bring them further gains. And there are some who wonder if they could squeeze a seat in the coming general election in the Republic. All of this must amount to a considerable political presence. And its leaders know that if it is to make any use of that presence it cannot continue to link itself to a paramilitary organisation.
It is unlikely that there will be any IRA ceasefire until after the general election in the Republic, albeit there may be a continuing reduction in offensive actions. But once the voting is over and once the governance of the two islands is set for the coming five years the leaders of Sinn Fein and the IRA will have to make up their minds. If they want to make their political strength effective there has to be an end to the violence. It may be that they cannot come to a unanimous position on the issue. In that case, Mr Adams and his lieutenants also know what they have to do.