The anti-American mood in Ireland is on the upswing, partly based on a mistaken impression that the US public is now "lusting for war" with Saddam Hussein , writes Niall O'Dowd.
The famous union leader Mike Quill is said to have told the first official he met in America after arriving from Kerry that, "if there's a government here I'm agin it". Quill's words could be adapted by much of the chattering classes in Ireland to read, "if it's American I'm agin it". In the wake of September 11th, and after an initial solidarity period, the anti-American mood is clearly on the upswing again.
It is patronising stuff, usually accompanied by a dollop of hand-wringing that America really can't help itself, and the capitalist system is inherently unreformable.
Some have openly pined for the return of the Soviet system as a counterbalance to the US, though you don't see too many Poles or Hungarians sighing for same. Others who objected to the war in Afghanistan appear to weep for the Taliban.
It is because of such perceptions that when visiting Ireland I am always struck by the huge reality gap between what Irish commentators believe is the state of the nation in America, and how that country is actually thinking.
The cozy consensus on Iraq is a case in point. I have been assured many times since I arrived that Americans are lusting for war with Saddam Hussein, and it's only a matter of time before the bomb bays are loaded up, the assault begins and the drumrolls reach a crescendo.
That is far from the truth. The evidence is right there in an ABC Network poll last week, unreported of course, in Ireland, which shows that only 56 per cent favour military action against Iraq, down from 69 per cent early in August. The same poll showed that only 39 per cent support military action if US allies and the United Nations are opposed, down from 54 per cent in August.
People should also know that President Bush's ratings are heading south rapidly because of all the war talk. He is now close to 60 per cent approval, down from a staggering 96 per cent at the height of the September 11th crisis, but now dropping about 6 per cent a month. That leaves the numbers finely balanced. No American president in his right mind will wage war if less than 50 per cent or so of his people agree with it and his own popularity is sinking.
That was what eventually brought down Lyndon Johnson in Vietnam. In contrast, George Bush snr in Kuwait, Bill Clinton in Bosnia and George Bush jnr in Afghanistan had approval from the overwhelming majority of Americans for their wars.
That is why the Bush administration is casting around for any evidence they can find to change hearts and minds. It is by no means a sure thing that they will succeed.
Indeed, when President Bush finally agreed to seek congressional approval for the war NBC's Lisa Myers, one of the most experienced Capitol Hill watchers, predicted that he would not receive approval at present, a view shared by other leading media commentators. In Ireland and Britain, however, approval was often presented as a sure thing.
It should also be noted that in the closed door session between Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld and senators from both parties last week, several senators, some from the Republican side, left the session because they were so displeased with Rumsfeld's analysis. Americans are not stupid. That shouldn't need to be said, but it must be.
Most understand that if they remove Saddam Hussein they will have to essentially run the country themselves until an acceptable alternative government is found. That could mean up to 250,000 young American lives at risk on a daily basis, perhaps for years.
The limits of American power are actually very well understood by its people. That is why some leading Republicans have begun speaking up against war.
Senator Chuck Hagel, himself a Vietnam veteran, has come out strongly against it, as have three members of George Bush snr's cabinet.
In the White House itself, Secretary of State Colin Powell is waging an all-out campaign against the "chicken hawks", the coterie of right-wingers around Bush who have no military experience but who are advocating war.
Rep. Nancy Pelosi, senior Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, said she told Bush in a recent meeting that "he had to be honest about the prospects for a prolonged US occupation of Iraq. We have to level with the American people that, in addition to everything else, we are talking about a long occupation of Iraq."
That hardly sounds like the carte blanche from the American people that many in Ireland appear to believe Bush has on this issue.
Indeed, Bush's decision to seek congressional approval for any declaration of war is a clear climb down from his position a few weeks ago that he could go it on his own. Unless he is able to furnish specific information that Saddam Hussein has nuclear capability and intends to use it, many predict he will doom his presidency if he decided to drag an unwilling nation to war.
When researching Fire in the Morning*, I was struck by the genuine message of reconciliation among the many victims I interviewed. While they were obviously angry at the carnage, almost all, from fire widows to surviving policemen to Wall Street workers, expressed hope that the world would learn from the tragedy and that it would never happen to anyone else again. None I spoke to wanted to invade Iraq.
It is a remarkable experience to sit with the widow of a firefighter, whose body has never been found, and hear her count the blessings that at least her two teenage kids had their father for a long time. She compared her situation to many young widows she knew who had young children who would never know their father.
I asked Patrick Day, a New York City librarian who lost his fiancée, Tuam-born Anne Marie McHugh, if he was angry at the terrorists who took her life.
"I realised it wouldn't do me any good," he said. "I am just sad that there are people on earth who believe carrying out this kind of act achieves anything."
The death of Father Mychal Judge, one of the most high profile victims, was the occasion of a letter from the rector of Drumcree Church expressing sympathy for his death. The Franciscan friar had attended the church in his full habit as part of his trip to Ireland to foster understanding. Given his history, his message would undoubtedly have been one of reconciliation, not retaliation, after September 11th.
Police Officer Moira Reddy Smith, whose father was from Dublin, was another hero on the day. She was the only female in uniform to die and left a three-year-old daughter. She stood on the mezzanine level of the North Tower as the buildings creaked and groaned, calmly escorting hundreds of panicked civilians to safety.
Such heroes are the epitome of Americans before, during and after the World Trade Centre on September 11th. It is unfortunate that a stereotype fostered by many commentators in Ireland of a nation of warmongers happily beating the bongo drums for war is totally at variance with the reality. This is true especially among those who suffered the most. September 11th victims are among those who speak loudest that a war against Iraq could be a huge mistake. Their voices need to be heard.
* Niall O'Dowd is founding publisher of the Irish Voice newspaper and author of Fire in the Morning: The Irish at the World Trade Centre on September 11th published by Brandon Books.