Middle East Peace

The need for a resolution of the current Middle East crisis grows more urgent by the day

The need for a resolution of the current Middle East crisis grows more urgent by the day. While that much may be clear to all, everything else about the process remains vague at this stage. After three hours of talks between President Clinton and Mr Arafat in Washington, associates of the Palestinian Authority president indicated he had given his broad approval to the White House peace plan but with unspecified conditions and reservations. For their part, the Israelis have indicated a willingness to proceed on the basis of the Clinton proposals if the Palestinians are prepared to move from their own positions.

On such occasions it can be difficult to distinguish between diplomacy and damage limitation. Are the participants genuinely trying to reach agreement or are they simply engaged in an obscure series of manoeuvres to ensure that the other side gets the blame for any collapse of the peace effort?

Given the pressures on both Mr Arafat and Israel's Prime Minister, Mr Barak, it seems highly unlikely that a full-scale peace agreement can be concluded before President Clinton's term of office expires on January 20th. The hope must be, however, that a serious process of mutual engagement will be set in motion which can survive, not only the change of administration in Washington, but also the highly-probable replacement of Mr Barak by his more hardline opponent, General Ariel Sharon.

This is a great challenge indeed for President Clinton, who is making one last determined bid to achieve his Number One policy goal of a Middle East settlement. From what is known about it, the private deal on offer is a tantalising one for moderates on both sides. The Palestinians acquire greater control in the West Bank and Gaza and a measure of sovereignty over East Jerusalem, in particular its holy places. The Israelis achieve a pledge to end both the Second Intifada and the Right of Return for Palestinian refugees.

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The plan is ambitious and requires major sacrifices and risks from both sides. Mr Barak seems doomed to be put out of office in the prime ministerial election of February 6th but if he sets the stage for a peace deal, he could well be back in the spotlight before very long. Mr Arafat has to contend with militant factions at his back who will stop at nothing to wreck the process. The Palestinian leader and father of his people is in the sunset of a colourful and controversial career: does the old warrior want to go out fighting or will he settle for the more modest gains to be made through negotiation? On the Israeli side, Mr Barak - and ultimately even Gen Sharon - know that, no matter how hard they crack down on the youthful Palestinian street fighters, at the end of the day the issues must be settled across a table. The casualty list on both sides, but especially among the Palestinians, continues to mount and at this stage over 350 have died - most of them young people and many of them children. But even this catalogue of horrors will be as nothing compared to the cataclysm that could erupt if solid and sensible elements in both camps do not lead their peoples back from the brink.