Lotto odds


Sir, – Paul Lavin (Letters, November 23rd) is not necessarily correct that Bernard Durkan TD has fallen for the gambler’s Monte Carlo fallacy. Whilst it is true that the odds of selecting the winning Lotto numbers do not change over time, this is only true based on the assumption that the winning numbers are drawn at random.

And the more draws that take place without a winner, the more reasonable it is to question this assumption. For example, in the eponymous Monte Carlo casino where black comes up 26 times consecutively in a roulette game, the gambler fooled by fallacy will bet against black, but the student of statistics will grow suspicious of the game.

– Yours, etc,


Milltown, Dublin 6.