INSIDE POLITICS:George Lee will find that coming up with good questions was much easier than finding the right answers, writes
STEPHEN COLLINS.
THE UNVEILING of George Lee as the mystery candidate for Dublin South gave Fine Gael a dream start to the campaign for the June 5th elections. The air of excitement generated by the arrival of the former RTÉ economic editor on the political scene took even hardened politicians by surprise.
"This is probably worth about 2 per cent to us nationally in the Euros and locals. George has already had a far bigger impact than I every expected," said one experienced Fine Gael politician. Other party TDs from rural constituencies reported that the only thing voters wanted to talk about on the doorsteps in mid-week was Lee.
The carping among sections of the media at the former RTÉ man's move into the political arena is a direct contrast to the public mood, which is broadly one of admiration for his decision to put his neck on the line and stand for election at such a critical time in the history of the State.
Of course Lee will inevitably find it was much easier to be the hurler on the ditch than a participant in the ferocious game of politics. Still, his courage as a journalist in standing by his views on the wrong direction of economic policy over the past decade, in the face of Government scorn and public apathy, was not a bad preparation for political life. From now on, though, he will be expected to do more than simply point out where it all went wrong. If, or more likely when, Lee and his Fine Gael colleagues get into power, they will have to come up with solutions that are every bit as unpalatable to wide sections of the general public as those being pursued by the current Government.
Lee will find that coming up with good questions as a journalist was much easier than finding the right answers as a politician, particularly in these perilous times. As he receives the adulation of voters in Dublin South he would do well ponder the reception given to Brian Cowen in his native Offaly a year ago. In politics the mood can change very quickly and sometimes very unfairly.
Lee might also ponder the fate of previous TV current affairs celebrities who made the transition to politics. For David Thornley, the Trinity academic and presenter in the 1960s of RTÉ's then flagship current affairs programme, Seven Days, the experience proved to be deeply disillusioning in which his political promise was not fulfilled. On the other hand Pat Cox, who came to public prominence in the 1980s as a presenter on Today Tonight, successor to Seven Days, had a hugely successful political career and became president of the European Parliament.
Whatever the future will bring for Lee, his entry into Fine Gael has proved a huge boost for party leader Enda Kenny, and the timing could not have been better. If ever a politician has been widely underestimated it is Kenny. Having brought his party back from the brink of oblivion in the European and local elections five years ago, he is now within striking distance of making Fine Gael the biggest party in the country in national elections for the first time in its history.
Of course coming out on top in the European and local elections is akin to winning the national league in GAA terms. The next general election will be the real championship decider but, as that is likely to take place sooner rather than later, pulling ahead of Fianna Fáil in the popular vote on June 5th will be the ideal preparation.
Fianna Fáil candidates in the various elections are finding that they never had it so tough. One prominent party politician who has fought every general election since 1981 said that he had never encountered anything like the public hostility to Fianna Fáil he has experienced in his forays on to the doorsteps with local election candidates over the past couple of weeks.
The selection of Maurice Ahern, brother of the former taoiseach, may limit the damage in Dublin Central, but even though Fianna Fáil has an enormous lead over everybody else on the last general election figures, it will be hard to buck the popular mood.
In Dublin South, Shay Brennan, son of the late Seamus, is really up against it, given the entry of Lee into the race. Labour's Senator Alex White was already a formidable candidate but Lee is now likely to sweep the boards as he ideally represents the mood of popular anger with the Government over the current plight of the country. It is hard to see that mood changing during the course of the election campaign and the only question is how strongly it will manifest itself on election day. At this stage most people in Fianna Fáil have written off the two byelections but they are hoping to hang on to the four European Parliament seats. The difficulty finding a new high profile candidate in North West, after the withdrawal of Seán Ó Neachtain, and finding a second candidate in the East to run with Liam Aylward shows just how difficult things are.
As regards the local elections, the conventional political wisdom until recent weeks was that as Fianna Fáil had done so badly in 2004 it might not have much farther to fall. That is now beginning to look like a far too optimistic assessment and the only question now is how bad the beating will be.
The refusal of the Greens to engage in a vote transfer pact with their Coalition partners shows a desire to put as much distance as possible between the two parties. Time will tell whether Labour leader Eamon Gilmore was right to suggest the move marked the first step in the Greens disengaging from Government but elections on June 5th will certainly put the Coalition under strain.