Israel Withdraws

Having anguished for years over why it was bogged down in Lebanon, Israel finally withdrew this week, six weeks ahead of the …

Having anguished for years over why it was bogged down in Lebanon, Israel finally withdrew this week, six weeks ahead of the deadline set by the Israeli Prime Minister, Mr Ehud Barak. The lightning collapse of the South Lebanon Army before advancing Shi'ite Muslim Hizbullah guerrillas hastened Israel's plans to pull out. Mr Barak hoped Israel would leave with its head held high, but the final departure was marked by scenes of undignified chaos. The promise to withdraw from Lebanon was a key plank of Mr Barak's election triumph a year ago, and he has tried to put a proud face on the withdrawal, hailing it as the end of a "tragedy" and of a war the military knew it could not win.

Israeli soldiers returning home were singing and happy, their parents were breathing sighs of relief, but there is still a question over how long Israeli soldiers will stay behind their new lines. The mood among Israelis could change dramatically if Hizbullah or other guerrillas take advantage of their new direct line of fire into Israeli towns and villages, and public opinion would rally behind Mr Barak should he decide to make good on the threat to attack Syrian targets if northern Israel comes under guerrilla attack once again.

The withdrawal has come without Israel's peace talks with Syria getting back on track. Syria is the key power broker in Lebanon, and Israelis believe Damascus has used Hizbullah attacks in the former occupation zone to try to secure peace concessions. Now that Damascus has lost the most important pressure card it had, the Syrian leadership faces a dilemma. Mr Barak has warned Lebanon and Syria that any firing at northern Israel would be regarded as an act of war and draw strong Israeli retaliation. Can they risk another war with Israel, or is Syria having its hand forced when it comes to negotiations on the Golan Heights?

The Israelis, for their part, must ask what has been achieved by the past 22 years of occupation. Israel invaded in 1978 to eliminate Palestinian guerrillas who threatened northern Israel, and it left with fears the Hizbullah guerrillas could have replaced them as a greater threat. Meanwhile, Israeli public opinion is rallying round Mr Barak for bringing the troops home in an operation that did not cost a single casualty. One opinion poll shows 72 per cent of Israelis think the withdrawal was the right step. The kudos he has gained from this week's events must strengthen Mr Barak's hand on the diplomatic front, although he still faces a sovereignty dispute with Lebanon over the "Shebaa Farms", with the potential that Hizbullah can continue to argue that Israel remains an occupying power and a legitimate target.

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And yet, Mr Barak must know this week's gains cannot divert attention from the need to reach a peace deal with Palestinians, who say no accord is possible without 1,650 Palestinian and Arab prisoners - now on hunger strike - being freed from Israeli jails. Whether or not all remains quiet on Israel's northern front, Mr Barak will have to come to grips again soon with crises plaguing him on both the Arab peace front and among his cabinet partners who are at odds with each other. The recent violence that swept the West Bank and Gaza could erupt again and was a warning to Mr Barak that there is still a long journey to travel.