Despite the increase in tension between India and Pakistan following last Thursday's attack by Kashmiri separatists on the parliament in Delhi, India's response is expected to be measured and responsible. There are those on both sides however who wish to inflame the situation further and to exploit the strains which exist in India's military and political establishment. A further escalation in violence could, therefore, lead to massive instability in the region.
The US secretary of State Mr Colin Powell has acknowledged India's right to "self defence" under circumstances of a similar nature, though of lesser magnitude, than the attacks which took place against the US on September 11th. He hastened to warn that the carrying out of this right, if directed against Pakistan, could cause a major crisis in the region. "I think we have to be very careful in this instance," he said, "because if, in the exercise of that right of self-defence, we have states going after each other, we could create a much more difficult situation, a situation that could spiral out of control."
While it is obvious that Mr Powell is taking American interests strongly into account, he has been a model of cautious diplomacy compared to some of the more hawkish members of the Bush administration. It is greatly to be hoped that his words will carry enough weight to help defuse a particularly dangerous situation in which both sovereign states happen not only to possess nuclear weapons but the rocketry with which to deliver them.
India says it has evidence to prove that Thursday's attack was backed by Pakistani military intelligence and executed by two Pakistan-based militant groups, Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad. Pakistan denies any involvement in the attack and has offered to take part with the Indian authorities in a joint investigation of the terrorist act. Under the current emotive circumstances it is hardly surprising that India, as the offended party, has rejected this offer.
Hard-liners within the ruling BJP party of Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee have called for strategic strikes against bases inside Pakistani-administered Kashmir. It is of the utmost importance that this course of action be avoided. India would be better served by a policy of restraint that would gain international support.