On the eve of the first anniversary of the general election, the Government's worst fears are confirmed by the findings of today's Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll. A substantial majority of voters - 92 per cent on health , 79 per cent on the economy and 71 per cent on jobs - believes that the Fianna Fáil/Progressive Democrats Coalition is not delivering on what it promised during the election campaign a year ago.
Two-thirds of voters restore health and hospitals to the top of the political agenda, ahead of all economic issues combined. No wonder then that the level of satisfaction with the Government, 28 per cent, has reached an all-time low.
The findings make grim reading for the Government parties as they grapple with a downturn in jobs and the economy generally, a plethora of scary developments in the health service, contradictions over the reintroduction of third-level fees and the breakdown in the negotiations on the Belfast Agreement.
The poll shows that the Teflon factor is wearing thin for the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, with a further drop in his satisfaction rating to 41 per cent. His level was 70 per cent at the time of the election. Mr Ahern now rates fourth in the party leadership stakes - overtaken by the Labour leader, Mr Rabbitte, the Sinn Féin president, Mr Adams, and the Tánaiste and PD leader, Ms Harney, in personal popularity. The support for Fianna Fáil has stabilised at 32 per cent but the party is under threat from Labour in Dublin. The PDs are also showing a drop of two percentage points in their support, to 4 per cent.
If the findings are bad for the Coalition's authority, however, they are disastrous for the Fine Gael party. The leader, Mr Kenny, shows a further drop in satisfaction rating to 26 per cent. And Fine Gael itself has failed to derive any benefit from the disillusionment with the Government. The party's support has fallen by two points to 20 per cent.
The main beneficiary of today's poll is the leader of the Labour Party, Mr Rabbitte, who enjoys the highest rating of all party leaders. The party's vote has increased by 6 points since February to 22 per cent, passing out Fine Gael as the second biggest party. The greatest gains are registered in Dublin and the broad Leinster region where, increasingly, elections are won or lost. Though the poll was conducted in the immediate aftermath of their annual conference last weekend, the scale of gains go beyond the artificial boost which could be attributed to the timing.
There are some surprising findings for smaller parties in the poll. The Sinn Féin president, Mr Adams, sees an increase in his personal rating to 48 per cent while the leader of the Green Party, Mr Sargent, experiences a drop of ten points to 26 per cent. The poll shows a significant shift in support patterns for the first time since last year's election which could have a marked impact on next year's local and European elections.