A multiplicity of signals and stirrings in the undergrowth suggests that important decisions may be imminent on the future of the peace process. Mr Martin McGuinness of Sinn Fein laid out his stall in a speech in Tralee on Thursday, intimating strongly that a new IRA ceasefire could be on the cards subject to certain conditions broadly, if his party can get swiftly into talks and if the decommissioning of weapons is pushed to a side agenda.
Government sources are saying little. But it is an open secret that Dublin has lent its weight to proposals for a permanent ceasefire which have been moved about between the IRA, Sinn Fein, Mr John Hume and Downing Street over recent weeks. To say that London is cautious is an understatement and both the Prime Minister and the Secretary of State have reiterated that words alone will not be sufficient to underwrite any new peace formula. Mr Major's government hangs by a thread. The threat of being brought down by Mr David Trimble and the Ulster Unionists stares the Tories in the face. The fear of being taken for a ride yet again by the IRA another "tactical ceasefire" as Sir Patrick Mayhew describes it is no less a concern.
It is a dilemma for Mr Major and his government. There is considerable political capital to be gained if the peace process can be fully revived. Real peace would indeed be a "glittering prize", as our London Editor describes it this morning, for a Prime Minister who is striving desperately to mount a good showing as the general election looms. But if he decides to buy in to another ceasefire, offering Sinn Fein early access to the talks, he runs the very real risk that Mr Trimble may choose to bring the edifice down by withdrawing support in the House. Mr Trimble has nailed up his colours on the proposition that the talks process should move forward without Sinn Fein.
Yet Mr Major would not be without gains or without cards to play in a scenario in which Mr Trimble and his Unionists would pull the rug out from under them. The SDLP's votes, traditionally cast for Labour, might be employed for a tactical transfer if the need arose. Equally, the Tories might draw some considerable kudos from falling on an issue of the gravest principle. There are worse ways to go to the country than by taking a stand for peace and by facing down those who might be identified as resisting an honourable compromise. Mr Major might ideally prefer to delay the election until the UK economy is better consolidated. But he would cut a more persuasive figure leading his MPs from the House in honourable defeat now than driven out on some trifling issue in three months' time.
By all accounts the ball is at Mr Major's feet. How long the opportunity will last, it is impossible to estimate. But for the moment, if the best intelligence is to be believed, the wild men's hands have been stayed. There can be little doubt that if they choose to resume their work with bomb and bullet, that moment of opportunity will pass and may not come around again for some time. Elemental and vicious influences are never far below the surface. If that were in doubt, witness the desecration near Castlewellan over recent days of a memorial, raised at the roadside by a widow, to mark the spot where her 21 year old son died at the hands of the IRA.