Extraordinary times call for responsible Opposition

INSIDE POLITICS: The next 100 days present all politicians with unprecedented challenges

THE GOVERNMENT parties have a lot to ponder in the findings of the latest opinion poll, but so too have the Opposition. What happens in the next 100 days will have a decisive bearing on the future of this country and politicians of all parties have a huge responsibility to do what is right, rather than what is merely expedient.

For Taoiseach Brian Cowen and Fianna Fáil the die is already cast. The party has no choice but to stick to the broad thrust of its policies and attempt to do the right thing by the country, whatever the electoral consequences. It could even be a liberating experience. The final shape of Nama and the budget will dictate not only the short-term political future of the Coalition but also the long-term future of the country. All TDs have a grave responsibility to approach both issues with a level of seriousness not usually present in Irish political discourse.

Before either of these issues is decided the people have to vote on the Lisbon Treaty. A second No would be a disaster that would only compound our existing problems and add some more for good measure. All of the major parties clearly understand that, but their TDs will have to put in a supreme effort over the next four weeks if there is to be a Yes vote.

Even on a narrow party political front a Yes to Lisbon is as important for the Opposition as for the Government. While a No could lead to the collapse of the Coalition, it would leave a FG-Labour government with an almost insurmountable problem as the first item on its agenda. It is not just on Lisbon that Enda Kenny and Eamon Gilmore will have to act every bit as seriously as if they were in government and forget the customary play-acting that so often passes for Opposition. The banking crisis and the budget have the capacity to bring the Coalition down, but the Opposition parties will need to tread warily on both, if for no other reason than they will have to pick up the pieces if things go wrong.

Enda Kenny is almost certain to be the next taoiseach and his actions over the next 100 days will show whether he is capable of rising to the job in these extraordinary times. His political talents are still underestimated by Fianna Fáil and most political commentators.

When he took over as Fine Gael leader after the election disaster of 2002 he was widely dismissed in the media as a lightweight and that has undoubtedly influenced his poor opinion poll ratings since then.

Despite those ratings Kenny has managed to drag his party back from the dead to make it the biggest party in the country in 2009 for the first time in its history. That was due to his political skill at restoring the morale of a battered party. Unlike almost all of his predecessors, as leader Kenny has managed to run a united party with no open dissent. That hasn’t happened by accident.

As the economic crisis deepened Kenny has made it clear he has no intention of adopting a Tallaght strategy and underpinning a Fianna Fáil-led Government. This is quite understandable. Fine Gael never got an ounce of thanks from the Irish electorate for Alan Dukes’s patriotic approach between 1987 and 1989. In any case, Fine Gael can hardly be expected to support a Government that adopted the foolish and profligate policies that have brought the country to its knees.

However, that does not absolve the Opposition from taking a responsible line in these extraordinarily difficult times. FG and Labour were quite entitled to point to FF’s unhealthy links with developers as a source of the problem, but that does not get over the fact that the banking crisis has the capacity to ruin the Irish economy and its people for the foreseeable future. Having made their political point, it now makes sense for all parties to work together to try and get the right response.

Fine Gael’s “Good bank Bad bank” policy is difficult to explain and there is no guarantee it would work in practice, whatever about in theory. Labour’s nationalisation policy has the advantage of being more understandable but doesn’t get over the fact that the bad loans have to be taken off the banks’ books so that they can work normally again. It took the Japanese a decade to arrive at this conclusion after their 1990s’ banking crisis and it was not until they came up with their version of Nama that Japan started to come out of recession.

Nama in some shape or form is an unavoidable necessity. The critically important issue is the price it will pay to the two big Irish banks for their “impaired” loans and how the subsequent risk and/or rewards will be shared. Finding a mechanism to protect the taxpayer to the maximum while restoring the banks to health should be the goal of all those involved.

Brian Lenihan’s immediate task is to keep the Greens on board. His appointment of Patrick Honohan as governor of the Central Bank is a clear signal that things will be done differently from now on. Honohan has publicly expressed constructive criticisms of the Nama project and it will be no surprise if Lenihan adopts some of them. The Minister’s announcement on Wednesday week about the price and conditions Nama will lay down for the banks will make or break the project.

If Lisbon and Nama are passed by the middle of October the focus will turn to the budget. On that front, Lenihan can expect no mercy from the Opposition. Whether the Coalition survives will depend on the nerve of the Greens and the Fianna Fáil backbenchers. If the Opposition parties help to deliver Lisbon and play a constructive role in shaping Nama they will have done their duty and will be entitled to take whatever advantage they can of the Coalition’s budgetary difficulties.