Eerie calm as Coalition partners stand by Taoiseach

INSIDE POLITICS:Succession issue has kept lid on FF dissent, but silence of Greens and PDs undermines their credibility.

THERE IS an eerie calm in the political world this Easter, despite the Taoiseach's increasingly vulnerable position. Fianna Fáil TDs are standing by their man and there is little the Opposition parties can do except shout abuse from the sidelines.

The only people with the power to inflict fatal political damage on Bertie Ahern are his Coalition partners and they are keeping as quiet as mice, hoping against hope that they will not be dragged into the fray.

Looked at purely in terms of realpolitik, it may make sense for the Greens, the Progressive Democrats and the assorted Independents, who underpin the Coalition, to keep their heads down and wait for the storm to pass. In the longer term, however, it means that the views of these parties and individuals on the issue of standards in public life can never again be taken seriously.

Fianna Fáil has a tradition going back over 80 years that emphasises loyalty above all political virtues and the bulk of the party's supporters know that is part of the package they voted for. Fianna Fáil TDs are not expected to challenge the standards adopted by their leaders, but those who voted for the other Coalition parties may well expect to see their TDs and Ministers to give a greater priority to some basic political virtues other than loyalty.

It is not just that it would be so easy to imagine the outrage that would have been expressed by the Greens or the PDs if they were in Opposition today. There is always a gulf between the indignation that comes so naturally from those on the Opposition benches and the more responsible approach that is a requirement for deputies on the Government side.

The real problem is that, at a deeper level, the Pontius Pilate act of Fianna Fáil's Coalition partners appears to indicate that there is nothing they would not swallow to remain in power. This is not only bad for the smaller parties in the Coalition, it is also bad for Fianna Fáil itself. In the past, the need to keep its Coalition partner on side tempered the attitude of the larger party in Government.

If the watchdog role of the smaller parties is so obviously redundant and they are prepared to underwrite the approach to standards in public life taken by the leadership of Fianna Fáil, in all circumstances, then an important restraint will have been removed from the activities of the Government.

It is not an easy position for Fianna Fáil's partners to be in. All of them have won commitments from the dominant party of Government for their pet projects. The Greens have got Ahern to sign up to the climate change agenda, the PDs have got the job they wanted in presiding over health service reform, while all of the Independents have obtained concessions for their constituencies.

At the end of the day though, they have to face up to the reality that they have given Bertie Ahern a blank cheque in terms of his political future. How he chooses to cash that cheque has been left entirely up to him and Fianna Fáil. The Greens have stuck rigidly to the line that they will await the findings of the Mahon tribunal before taking any view of the Taoiseach's evidence. The problem for them is dealing with the facts disclosed at the public hearings of the tribunal.

Facts speak for themselves and do not have to be corroborated by the findings of a report. There are enough facts in the open already to make all the parties of Government squirm.

While there is no sign of anybody at a senior level in Fianna Fáil raising questions about Bertie Ahern's continued leadership in the light of the facts disclosed at the tribunal, there certainly is a great deal of speculation about the succession stakes, when and if the Taoiseach decides to call it a day.

The overwhelming favourite to succeed is the Tanáiste and Minister for Finance, Brian Cowen. He has occupied that position for the past few years and Ahern's endorsement of him as the favoured replacement has reinforced his hot-favourite tag. Cowen has studiously avoided being cast as a rival to Ahern and has gone out of his way to show loyalty to the Taoiseach. This has served to keep a lid on any possible murmurings of dissent in the party at the trend of events.

The Opposition have begun to ratchet up the pressure on Cowen, calling on him to act decisively to bring the leadership issue to a head in the interests of the country. "Does Brian Cowen still believe the Taoiseach to be truthful as he told the Dáil a few weeks ago?" asked Fine Gael's Phil Hogan yesterday.

People in all parties are beginning to wonder out loud if Cowen and his likely rivals for the leadership, Micheál Martin and Dermot Ahern, will go to the Taoiseach at some stage and tell him it is time to go. The three spoke to Bertie Ahern at a crucial stage in the general election campaign and persuaded him to issue a public statement about his personal finances. That statement calmed Fianna Fáil nerves in the election and allowed the party to shift the debate on to the economy.

The problem about a repeat visit on the issue of leadership is that the three may have different interests at this stage. Cowen will almost certainly win the succession if there is an early contest, so it would be in the interests of the other two for the Taoiseach to remain where he is for the foreseeable future. It will probably take concrete evidence to show that Fianna Fáil is really hurting as a result of the Taoiseach's tribunal evidence before they join forces to cross that bridge.