In invading Ukraine, Vladimir Putin sought to test Europe’s ability and will to defend itself collectively. Gathering in Washington over the last two days to mark the 75th anniversary of Nato, founded precisely to meet that challenge, the 32-strong alliance gave the lie to the Russian president’s miscalculation.
The summit saw concerted attempts to “Trump-proof” Nato by agreeing advance commitments that a new, less friendly US administration will find difficult to repudiate. The summit leaders unleashed a broadside against China, for the first time explicitly denouncing its aid to Russia and hinting at sanctions. Leaders also got the chance to assess President Biden’s mental capacity. On which, not surprisingly, they were somewhat coy.
Nato is in rude form, in Biden’s words “stronger than it’s ever been in its history”. Albeit at a high cost. The unintended consequences of that invasion have given it a clear purpose, grown it by two (Finland and Sweden) and forced members to dig deeper into national coffers to resource it.
Nato asks members to spend at least 2 per cent of GNP on defence, and 23 are projected to do so in 2024, up 20 in 10 years. European members and Canada are collectively forecast to increase 2023-24 defence spending by around 30 per cent.
Inevitably, Ukraine was the main preoccupation, and, following the 43 deaths in Monday’s attacks on Kyiv and its children’s hospital, commitments were made to send long-sought F-16 jets, major air defence upgrades,and fresh supplies of ammunition and artillery. London also approved the use of its supplies to target inside Russia, a key ask from Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy . The US, fearful of provoking the Russians, remains reluctant to approve what might be seen as drawing it and Nato deeper into the war.
For the same reason the US, Hungary, Germany and Italy are reluctant to give effect to Nato’s 2008 promise of membership for Ukraine, and the summit limited itself to a further pledge that Ukraine’s path towards membership is “irreversible”.