The main significance of last Sunday’s general election in Portugal is that the Socialist Party (PS), victorious in the previous two contests and having won an overall majority in a triumphant performance just two years ago, will now be forced into opposition. With all the seats allocated except those reserved for Portuguese living abroad, the centre-right coalition, Aliança Democratica (AD), has come in with 79 seats to the PS’s 77, a massive loss of 43 seats for the socialists.
The second most striking aspect of the election, brought about in part by the involvement of prime minister António Costa’s government in a series of corruption scandals, has been the gain in seats for the far-right populist party Chega (Enough), which progressed from 12 to 48 seats. Until 2019 Portugal was one of the few countries in Europe in which the far right had no representation in parliament. Now Chega’s leader, André Ventura, is demanding a place in the next government, though it is not clear if he will succeed.
Chega, whose motto, ‘God, Fatherland, Family, Work’, recalls that of the dictatorship established by António Salazar which governed Portugal for 41 years until 1974, has campaigned against immigration, abortion, LGBT rights, the Roma community and “the Islamisation of Europe”. During the campaign, the leader of AD, Luis Montenegro, promised that whatever the result he would not govern with Chega’s support. He has since reiterated that “no means no.”
The new socialist leader, Pedro Nuno Santos, has said that his party has no intention of allowing Chega to become the main voice of opposition in Portugal. It plans to take on that role itself, though it may be prepared in the short term to facilitate the formation of a minority centre-right government.
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Such a government may struggle to last a full term. The socialists will hope to recover their strength and credibility in opposition and to demonstrate that the dramatic surge of the far right is a result of a temporary protest rather than a lasting feature of Portuguese politics.