Dublin Airport Authority (DAA), the state company which operates and manages Dublin Airport, is in talks with airlines to avert a breach of the annual cap on the number of passengers using the airport.
The limit of 32 million is a condition of the planning approval for the construction of a second terminal, which opened in 2010.
We have been here before. The cap was breached in 2019 as travel hit a pre-pandemic peak and 32.9 million people used the airport, although there is a question mark over the true number, as transit passengers are double counted.
The proximate cause of concern for the DAA is the impact of a breach on its efforts to ease restrictions on the number of night flights to and from the airport. The restrictions were part of the planning permission granted for the second runway which opened in August 2022. Fingal County Council has served an enforcement notice arising out of complaints about excessive noise from residents living near the runway and under its flight path. This is being challenged in the courts by the DAA and a number of airlines.
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Whichever way this case pans out, the issue of capacity at Dublin Airport will not go away. The question of the cap being breached is really one of when rather than whether. A Department of Transport 2018 review of future capacity needs predicts that Dublin Airport will start to reach capacity – in terms of aircraft stands and boarding gates – from 2025 onwards.
Fingal County Council’s Dublin Airport Local Area plan envisages passenger numbers reaching 40 million by 2030. This could apparently be accommodated by reconfiguring the existing terminals but ultimately a third terminal will definitely be needed by 2031, says the Department of Transport.
If these forecasts are accurate then the Government will need to begin advance planning for a third terminal. The State has a lamentable record when it comes to delivering large infrastructure projects on budget and on time. Terminal 2 took over four years to design and build. According to the Commission for Aviation Regulation, the terminal itself cost €759 million, 22 per cent more than the €620 million allowed, while the associated projects ran 9 per cent over budget at €151 million. If the ongoing saga of the national children’s hospital is any guide, even matching the timescale and overruns for Terminal 2 would be an achievement.
All of this is good news for the owners of the land to the east of the airport, who know the clock is ticking for the third terminal and who are seeking €200 million for the most obvious site. It’s yet more bad news for the residents of north County Dublin whose desire for a good night’s sleep may continue to be trumped by the economic imperative for regular, reliable air access to our island.