Economic challenges

The latest Exchequer figures will provide no comfort to the Government

The latest Exchequer figures will provide no comfort to the Government. They show that spending is still out of control, running at 22 per cent ahead of last year - well in excess of the Government's own target of 14.3 per cent.

The only positive note from the figures is a small year-on-year increase in tax revenues,. However even this can be partly attributed to delayed receipts on corporation tax, not included in the June figures.

Figures published yesterday also showed that unemployment has risen 17 per cent over the past year. On a seasonally-adjusted basis, 4.4 per cent of the labour force is now unemployed, the highest rate since April 2000.

Unfortunately it all points to a deteriorating economic position. Mr McCreevy's stated aim of turning in a surplus at the end of the year, albeit a small one, looks remote. The Government has also committed to paying a proportion of pay increases for public servants recommended in the benchmarking report this year, if all parties fully accept the report , a move which would add up to €150 million to spending.

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Undoubtedly, inflation - which at 4.7 per cent is twice the EU average - will also add to wage demands across all sectors. A series of recent price increases will also not help inflationary pressures.

It is difficult to see an early improvement in our economic fortunes. August is a quiet month and it may be October before there is any bounce in the economy and in tax revenues; even that would be reliant on a strong international backdrop.

Worryingly , data from the US this week has also shown that its economy has faltered. Yesterday's US employment figures - showing that just 6,000 jobs were created last month - indicate a sluggish picture , which could yet affect prospects here.

A significant slowdown in expenditure in most Departments is now a matter of urgency. The challenge will be to maintain essential services, many of which - such as health - demand more funding, not less. Posting a year end deficit and having to borrow may now be inevitable. It is essential that a plan is quickly put in place to stabilise the national finances; crucially, this must include a closer focus on identifying priorities and ensuring value for money.