A grim feeling of inevitability has accompanied the latest escalation of violence between Israelis and Palestinians, as their conflict edges towards all-out confrontation. Despite the danger to the region, political initiatives to scale it down are alarmingly absent, especially from the United States, but also from the Arab states and the European Union. There has been a sense that the succession of bombings, shootings, selective assassinations, and tank and missile strikes will run their course and can be contained without a grave deterioration of regional stability.
That is a dangerous assumption, which cannot be long sustained. As atrocities and counter-atrocities succeed one another there is a constant temptation to jack up revenge or "preventative" attacks. Israel's assassination of Hamas militants escalates these exchanges to a new level of danger. A level of acceptable violence is too cynical a way of regarding this conflict. It disregards the potential spillover into regional war and the motives some of those involved might have to encourage such an escalation.
Nevertheless there is precious little sign of any political initiative. Earlier this summer proposals to scale down the Palestinian violence, freeze Israeli settlement activity and return to political dialogue, were prepared by Egypt and Jordan and reaffirmed by a report from Mr George Mitchell's influential group of mediators. Concentrated international pressure was applied to put this in place, but to no avail in the face of continuing escalations.
Both sides have come to expect a strong US involvement; but President Bush is refusing to be drawn in as deeply as President Clinton, despite saying yesterday it is a top priority. He is reported to be undecided on how to intervene and whether there is a linkage between the Israeli-Palestinian and Iraqi issues that could affect US interests.
Neither European nor Arab states are willing to substitute for the US. There has been some movement towards appointing international monitors, but the Israelis, as yet, express no readiness to accept that. Such a proposal must be part of any new international initiative. The behavior of Israeli settlers and the free hand taken by Israeli security forces in their assassination campaign against Palestinian leaders receive too little critical attention from the international community. The Sharon government's deep divisions over a peace strategy are conveniently masked by such escalations.
On the Palestinian side it is clear that Mr Arafat has less and less control over the Intifada. The lethal Israeli attacks on Hamas activists make it all the more difficult for him to compete with that organisation and in fact encourage an accommodation with it. Calls for a complete end to the Palestinian violence are incapable of being met. One year on from last summer's peace talks it looks difficult indeed to return to the conditions that allowed them proceed, however flawed they look in retrospect. But it is quite wrong to conclude that peace efforts are not necessary and worthwhile.