Clinton yearns for favourable verdict from history on his stewardship

The head of William Jefferson Clinton will never be carved in rock on Mount Rushmore with the likes of Washington and Lincoln…

The head of William Jefferson Clinton will never be carved in rock on Mount Rushmore with the likes of Washington and Lincoln, but the President leading the most powerful country in the world into the 21st century hopes historians will look favourably on his achievements.

As he signed what he repeatedly called the "historic" agreement to balance the budget by 2002, commentators pondered his legacy and cartoonists portrayed him on Mount Rushmore. The budget deal, which will see the deficit eliminated by 2002, is a remarkable achievement for a Democratic President confronted with a Republican-controlled Congress.

Less than two years ago, Mr Clinton was battling the Republicans led by Speaker Newt Gingrich over their plan to balance the budget. The Clinton veto led to a temporary closedown of government during a harsh winter. But last week, on the sunny South Lawn of the White House, Mr Clinton and Mr Gingrich practically embraced as they both sang the praises of bipartisanship and a budget deal which reduces taxes for the first time since Ronald Reagan was elected to the presidency.

But while the Reagan "supply side" tax cuts made the budget deficit soar, the Clinton-Gingrich deal will make it disappear and give everyone, rich and poor, a tax cut. The critics grumble that it is being done with "smoke and mirrors" and the deficit will balloon again after 2002 when the Clinton generation starts drawing retirement pensions and medical benefits.

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The economist Robert Samuelson points out that the economy is doing so well that the budget deficit would have disappeared in two years if the President and Congress had not decided to hand out goodies all round. But the White House says the economic boom, now in its fifth year, is due to Mr Clinton's courageous deficit-shrinking plan carried out soon after he first took office in 1993.

So while the economy roars ahead and Wall Street soars, it's like Ronald Reagan's "Morning in America" as a fitter, leaner President Clinton prepares to take off for a holiday in celebrity-studded Martha's Vineyard. His poll ratings are high and the media gush over how he has lost weight through "a maniacal exercise and diet plan" in spite of the accident which put him on crutches last March and off the golf course until a few weeks ago.

But making war on budget deficits doesn't get presidents into the history books. Clinton aides, knowing their boss's concern for his legacy, try to dream up a suitable phrase to describe his presidency which will stick in people's minds the way New Deal, New Frontier or Great Society summed up those of Roosevelt, Kennedy and Johnson.

Mr Clinton is the first Democratic President to be re-elected to a second term since Mr Roosevelt. He is also showing Americans that having a Democrat in the White House does not mean "tax and spend". He has pushed through NATO expansion and is getting ready to extend the NAFTA free trade agreement binding the US, Canada and Mexico to other Latin American countries.

A historian, Douglas Brinkley, biographer of Jimmy Carter, says Mr Clinton should not suffer the same fate. "He redirected the Democratic Party" and has also redesigned himself from a first-term "policy wonk" into someone who judged well where Americans wanted to be.

His biggest problem, the historian says, is that "more than anything else, Clinton is trying to not be Warren Harding where scandals overtake a legacy".

The threat of scandals hovers over the second term. The Senate investigation into election fund-raising abuses has been suspended until Congress resumes in September and may yet produce a "smoking gun" showing that the President, and Vice-President Gore, were not as innocent as they claim.

The Whitewater property deal that went wrong for the Clintons when in Arkansas is still being investigated by a special prosecutor, Mr Kenneth Starr, who has yet to produce his report. Mrs Clinton seems more at risk here than her husband but the signs are there is not enough evidence to implicate her in wrongdoing.

Paula Jones's case of sexual harassment moves along following the Supreme Court decision that she can pursue it against a sitting President. It threatens to get nastier as her lawyers try to subpoena a former White House female staff member on the grounds that Mr Clinton "fondled" her in a small study off the Oval Office. Ms Jones's lawyers say they are trying to establish a "pattern of behaviour" by Mr Clinton of sexually harassing women.

That the President had to answer a question about this development at his press conference this week shows that he will be pursued by the media as well as Ms Jones's lawyers until there is some resolution of the case. This is something the Clinton legacy could do without.

Meanwhile, Mr Clinton bubbles with new ideas to make his mark before he steps down in 2000. Race relations and education are two areas where he is already using his second term to raise the consciousness of Americans to dangers underlying economic prosperity.

The gap between rich and poor is increasing and the planned tax cuts will widen it further while ensuring some relief for the lower-paid. African-Americans and the rapidly expanding Hispanic population are mainly found at the lower end of the income scales.

The President has delivered on his pledge to correct the more punitive aspects of the Republican welfare reform bill he signed last year before the election, thereby shocking the liberal wing of the Democrats. But the leader of this wing, the House minority leader, Dick Gephardt, pointedly shunned the signing ceremony of the budget deal which he also voted against in Congress.

Mr Gephardt and Mr Al Gore will be fighting for the soul of the Democratic Party over the next three years as Mr Clinton prepares his exit from the national scene. He will back Mr Gore as the one best fitted to preserve the Clinton legacy whatever it turns out to be.