Cabinet reshuffle made with an eye to the next election

Cabinet reshuffles can be entered into to achieve a number of goals

Cabinet reshuffles can be entered into to achieve a number of goals. Almost never is it a case of filling in the gaps created by those leaving the frontbenches.

The most obvious is to remove ministers whose positions have become untenable and replace them with what will, hopefully, turn out to be more able, popular and effective individuals.

This was not the case this week. The ministers who, it might be argued, were under the most pressure, politically and publicly, stayed where they were.

The second option is one the Taoiseach decided to eschew. When a Government is doing well, as this one is, an element of complacency can set in. Not specifically among the members of that administration but within the media and the public. This is understandable as we have had 2 1/2 years to get used to the same old faces dealing with similar issues. It can also help to reinvigorate the performance of the departments. New ministers will usually bring new ideas and renewed energy to the challenges set them by a fresh portfolio.

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While the moves of Micheal Martin to Health and Brian Cowen to Foreign Affairs will probably result in a changed outlook for both Departments, the reshuffle was not wide enough in its scope to have a rejuvenating effect on the Government as a whole.

Seats at the next election, who delivers them and who will be expected to, was behind the majority of the switches and promotions this time.

Our new Minister for Foreign Affairs helps the party to three seats from a five-seat constituency with monotonous regularity. Micheal Martin performs a similar role in Cork. Both have been dealing with tricky Departments and producing results. Brian Cowen dealt with one of the most potentially destructive strikes the State has faced and in so doing has taken a lot of flak. His move rewards willingness to suffer those attacks. It also gives him enough time at a new Department to repair any lasting damage ahead of the next poll.

No such damage has accrued to Micheal Martin. He is widely agreed to have done a good job at the Department of Education and his move to Health is recognition of that. Given that the worst controversies in the health service likely to face this Government have already taken place, he has an opportunity to enhance his and the party's standing with the voters.

Frank Fahey's achievement in topping the Fianna Fail vote in Galway West at the last election did not go unnoticed. This is a five-seat constituency, a very important one, and one that the party would be keen to get three seats from. Right now the party has about 21/2 seats' worth of votes there. The task for our new Minister for the Marine and Natural Resources will be to get the extra votes and seat.

The Taoiseach's decision to allocate that particular portfolio to him was well considered. Galway West is a constituency tightly linked with the sea.

Its fishing industry is centred on Rosa-Mhil, which is in dire need of development. Galway city currently suffers from having a narrow, tidal port.

In order to maintain its position as a centre of commerce on the western seaboard, it needs a fully operational deepwater port.

Should Frank Fahey prove to be successful, as I am sure he will, an interesting prospect is raised for the next general election. Fianna Fail will have him, Eamon O Cuiv and Margaret Cox as the three TDs they are hoping to return. However, two other candidates are unlikely to lose their seats. Michael D. Higgins will still be a TD come the next Dail, although Labour should not count on holding the seat once Michael D. ceases to contest it on its behalf. And Fine Gael would have to make monumental errors not to return Padraig McCormack to Leinster House. Which, by a process of elimination, leaves Bobby Molloy's seat as the most vulnerable and the one that Fahey and Fianna Fail must target.

In order to free up the Department of the Marine, Michael Woods had to be reassigned. The Taoiseach had two options, demotion or promotion. Some quarters have expressed surprise that Dr Woods was promoted, citing his age as a major factor against him. Ignoring the ageism implicit in that view, it should not be forgotten that he is one of the most experienced Ministers in the Cabinet. His performance in each of the Departments he has headed up has been excellent.

The Taoiseach and those who preceded him know that Michael Woods will look after his portfolio without causing problems. He was the perfect choice to continue the good work started by the previous incumbent at the Department of Education.

Dun Laoghaire is another constituency that required attention. David Andrews had been Fianna Fail's leading light there for decades. However, he will not be running in the next election so the party's representation there needed a boost. Mary Hanafin was the obvious choice for promotion and should bolster the vote there.

Eoin Ryan of Dublin South East has been brought in to replace Chris Flood at the Department of Tourism, Sport and Recreation. Again, this decision has been made with one eye on the next general election. Dublin South East is Ruairi Quinn's turf and the party needs to bolster its representation so that it can better cope with his usual poll-topping performances.

The final word on the reshuffle must be reserved for David Andrews and Chris Flood. At first glance, they would appear to be very different politicians.

This is due to David Andrews's far higher media profile and is a false impression. Both men worked tirelessly for their constituents and neither was devoted to courting the media, though the ex-minister for foreign affairs found himself in the spotlight more often because of the work he had taken on. If he was truly media hungry, Liz O'Donnell as Minister of State could not have achieved the level of coverage for herself that she has. Andrews and Flood will be greatly missed. I wish them both well for the future.