Inspired by the political protests in Serbia, Bulgarian citizens have taken to the streets to demand immediate elections, the need for which was last night conceded by the ruling party. The protests in Sofia. have been driven by a far greater economic immediacy, although their respective objects, the two authoritarian post communist regimes, have much in common. The grinding disciplines of hyper inflation, and a collapsing economy foreshortened the timespan of events in Sofia compared to those in Belgrade.
The Bulgarian economy spiralled out of control last year after the government rejected advice from the International Monetary Fund to privatise much of the country's industry and withdraw subsidies in order to be able to service its $10 billion foreign debt. The government, dominated by ex communists elected in a landslide to a four year term in December 1994, believed it could preserve the centrally planned economy despite such international pressures; but it had to admit defeat and resign last month in face of a 300 per cent rate of inflation and the collapse of industrial production and agricultural markets.
Since then the new party leadership strenuously resisted calls for immediate elections, preferring to keep open the option of forming a new administration which would see out the bulk of its term. Unfortunately both the outgoing President, Mr Zhelyu Zhelev, and his centre right successor, Mr Petar Stoyanov, who was elected in November, both agreed that fresh legislative elections should be called. Although the Bulgarian presidency is relatively weak, rather like the Irish one, the two men's advice has clearly been a determining factor. The ex communist party was pitching for an opportunity to benefit from the expected economic turn around from implementing an amended IMF plan, thereby avoiding electoral humiliation. It must now face into an election which seems likely to remove it decisively from power.
Inevitably, comparisons will be drawn between events in Bulgaria and Serbia, and also with those in neighbouring Romania, despite the many differences between these states and societies. Despite prolonged international sanctions on Serbia during the Bosnian war and the intense and drawn out popular protests there about local elect ton results, levels of income and economic activity have not collapsed to anything like the same extent as in Bulgaria. In Romania the election of a new President drawn from the liberal opposition seems certain to put that country on a new, more confident course this year, based on far more sustainable and healthy economic circumstances than in Bulgaria.
Now that elections are to be called, which it is to be hoped will resolve the impasse about economic policy, it is urgently necessary that international aid be extended on a transitional basis, so as to prevent a further deterioration of economic conditions and everyday life. Economic restructuring will be made easier now that the political barriers to reform have been overcome peacefully. But it should be possible to implement it in such a way as to protect basic social provisions and to avoid the mass impoverishment that has so often accompanied hyper inflation and industrial collapse.