An opinion poll in the Guardian this week underlined the uphill task facing the Labour government in Britain if and when it mounts a determined campaign to convince voters that the country should join the European single currency. Overall, 52 per cent of voters are opposed, 29 per cent in favour and 19 per cent don't know. The gaps are wider among working class and women voters. But there is hope for the government Europhiles in the evidence that most people expect the UK to join eventually and that many more people would accept this is desirable if convinced that the economic conditions were right.
Any further indication of a more positive government attitude to joining the euro, beyond the current official wait-and-see policy, was conspicuous by its absence in this highly auspicious inaugural week for the new currency. The Prime Minister, Mr Blair, and the Chancellor, Mr Brown, were both on holiday, preoccupied with the Mandelson affair, much the most serious political crisis to have hit them, as was evident in the Prime Minister's press briefings from South Africa yesterday. Media and public attitudes seemed to mirror this somewhat aloof official approach to the euro, with a notable reluctance to acknowledge the genuinely historic and successful launch of the euro and a continuing propensity to look for the weak links in the new institutional chain of European integration.
Among those in favour of Britain joining the euro there is a growing awareness that the debate on the subject must be joined politically very soon if the ground identified in such opinion polls is to be made up when the referendum is held. It is widely assumed that the Labour government has decided Britain should join when the economic conditions are right; and it is increasingly understood that the five tests formulated by Mr Brown in October 1997 to judge that question are sufficiently ambiguous and flexible to allow for political decision. It is also widely recognised that until a determined political will is applied there will be no decisive shift of opinion towards joining the euro, given the vociferous opposition of key newspapers and the opposition in principle of the Conservatives.
However ineffective that party has been under Mr William Hague's leadership, it has now been given a handsome opportunity by the Mandelson affair to attack Labour's leadership. The Conservatives' hostile approach to the euro will become an issue in the next election. It could easily become entangled in other aspects of the Labour agenda, particularly devolution for Scotland and Wales and constitutional change. It should not be assumed that the Conservatives will continue to be so ineffective an opposition if their defence of British sovereignty becomes more popular.
Mr Blair faces a difficult task in mending the deep factional divisions within his party revealed by the Mandelson resignations. As he concentrates on them, he may be the less inclined to take the initiative on the euro that will be necessary to swing public opinion towards it. He will face that task now with a less overwhelming lead over the opposition and with less authority than he was able to command during his first period in office. In the meantime, the European debate on the optimum economic and political conditions to develop the single currency will move on, a continual reminder that the wait and see policy is no substitute for decisive choice about whether Britain should join.