The tone of the exchanges yesterday going into the European Union's summit this weekend on completing the constitutional treaty indicates how difficult a task it will be. The Italian Prime Minister, Mr Berlusconi, who will chair the proceedings, said it will be a miracle if agreement is reached.
He has a formula to propose which could square the circle between France and Germany, Poland and Spain on voting weights, much the most contentious issue. A Spanish spokesman snorted in response: "It's secret, so it doesn't exist. Because if it is not expressed in reality it's left to the Platonic world of ideas". There were similar uncompromising statements by Polish, German and French leaders.
Such brinkmanship does not necessarily betoken a failure. It is something of a miracle that so much progress has been made to complete negotiations on the text of the treaty in so short a period of time. In large part this is because the Convention on the Future of Europe, which prepared the text, did such a good job. It is reckoned that about 80 per cent of its draft has survived the intensive inter-governmental negotiations of the last three months and the remaining 20 per cent is virtually complete. This leaves only a small number of issues, at most 10, to be decided.
Given goodwill, a readiness to compromise, ingenuity and luck it can be done. And it is very important indeed for the EU's future that it should be. This document is legally entitled a "treaty establishing a constitution for Europe". It is intended to simplify and clarify the EU's rules for the benefit of member-states and citizens, prepare its decision-making for a much larger entity with a population of up to 450 million people, and ensure a balance between efficiency and legitimacy in its institutions. All told, these tasks have been successfully accomplished by the final draft under consideration this weekend. While it is not a document to last a generation, as some enthusiasts demanded, it promises to be a much more accessible and effective set of rules than before.
It is essential that the last-minute bargaining does not sacrifice the balances between large and small states, pooled and co-operative decision-making which have stood up so well to the great changes in a uniting Europe since 1989. Cleavages between large and small states have emerged sharply in these negotiations, but have largely been resolved. It is the differences between the largest ones and the not so large that are most divisive. Germany, with 80 million people, cannot accept it should have only marginally more votes that Poland and Spain with less than half the population.
There may be some room for manoeuvre with timing and implementation. Other compromises, on taxation, defence, references to Christianity, a president and foreign minister for the EU, representation in the Commission and applying majority voting to new areas such as foreign policy are all on the table in the final stages. A failure to agree this weekend could see them all unravel.