FOLLOWING A bloody weekend in which at least 120 demonstrators are reported to have been killed by the Syrian authorities, the deployment of troops and tanks and at least 20 further deaths in the southern city of Deraa and in the Damascus suburbs of Douma and Maadamiah, mark a serious escalation of the crackdown on protests. They also dispel any remaining ambiguity about President Bashar al-Assad’s reformist intent.
Five weeks into the country’s uprising, Assad raised Syria’s 48-year state of emergency last Thursday. However, the mounting death toll and the disappearances since Friday of 500 citizens, apparently into police custody, belie repeated hints at democratic reform over the 10 years since he took over from his father, Hafez. Despite a brief “Damascus Spring” of greater openness after his accession, Assad has failed to take on the entrenched power of his family, which controls the brutal security apparatus, or of the old guard in the Ba’ath Party. Disappointment at his role has led increasingly to calls by demonstrators for his overthrow.
Assad’s dilemma, if it is genuinely one, is in part a reflection of the country’s sectarian divide. His family are members of the Shia Alawite minority – a relatively privileged 10 per cent of the country’s 23 million population – which dominates the army apparatus and is deeply resented by Syria’s Sunni majority. In recent weeks, observers say, the government has largely relied on Alawite-controlled units, including the army division led by Assad’s brother Maher al-Assad. Until now, the secular regime has suppressed, often brutally, inter-communal tensions but many fear that if it collapses, sectarian blood-letting could follow.
Such considerations have undoubtedly contributed to western ambivalence about the Syrian uprising, despite the reality that Tehran – the country’s key ally – would be perceived to be the big regional strategic loser. Israel, the US and Saudi Arabia are all deeply worried at the prospect of a destabilised country in which the sort of conflict that has torn Iraq apart emerges.
The intensification of the crackdown – the first time the authorities have sent tanks into population centres since the protests began – is a sign of weakness and desperation, rather than of strength. It suggests a regime in serious trouble. Instead of burning out, the protest movement appears to have become entrenched and to be gaining broader support, with more voices bravely willing to speak out in a society which is intolerant of free speech. On Monday, a declaration issued by 102 writers and journalists in Syria and in exile called on intellectuals “who have not broken the barrier of fear to make a clear stand”. In an unprecedented move last weekend, two MPs resigned in protest at the killing of their constituents.
Internationally, there have been strong denunciations of the escalation of violence and calls for activists to be released. The US said on Monday it is studying targeted sanctions and the Dutch yesterday proposed an EU suspension of aid and both an arms embargo and sanctions against Syria’s leaders. But it is time to go beyond words.