BLAIR OR MAJOR?

The most striking feature of both the Conservative and Labour election manifestos is their Uncanny similarity one to another

The most striking feature of both the Conservative and Labour election manifestos is their Uncanny similarity one to another. Both parties have divested themselves of their respective radical edges, toning down traditional ideologies almost to the point of invisibility and moving towards the centre. Mr John Major claims that the Tory manifesto is the party's most radical since 1979; Mr Blair may talk about the "radical centre"; but there are few hostages to fortune and few brave departures in either document.

The manifestos underline the broad consensus on key issues; both parties stress the need for fiscal responsibility, both are `sceptical' on Europe (whatever that means) both promise a crackdown on crime and greater investment in education. Increasingly, it appears that the outcome of the election will be determined not by specific promises or policies but whether the electorate will buy Labour's plea that it is time for a change and if that same electorate can be persuaded that Tony Blair and his New Labour genuinely represent such a change. The opinion polls suggest strongly that Mr Blair remains poised for victory notwithstanding some reservations about his in experience of government and Labour's concentration on image, rather than substance.

With the British economy enjoying a robust revival, the Tories should have a strong objective case for re election. The manifesto, with its populist tax cuts - notably the promise of transferable tax allowances for stay at home spouses who look after children or dependent relatives - should give a fillip to their campaign, although as Mr Bob Dole will confirm, a sophisticated electorate is not always impressed by last minute tax cutting proposals.

The Tories, meanwhile, continue to undermine themselves with the relentless avalanche of sleaze and Mr Major's overdefensive approach towards Mr Neil Hamilton, the MP at the centre of the cash for questions scandal. All of this has contributed to a definite air of fin de siecle in British politics; the Tories seemingly tired, tacky and lacking in any vision for the future. But Mr Major is a hardened campaigner and a doughty fighter. He can still exercise a great personal appeal. When he launched the Labour manifesto yesterday, Mr Blair stayed well clear of any potential policy pitfalls. There was plenty of vague talk about how New Labour can help Britain to do better indeed about how Britain deserves to do better. There was also some role reversal since the last election; this time it is Labour who are accusing the Tories of reckless tax pledges and fiscal irresponsibility. For a Prime Minister in waiting, Mr Blair was remarkably modest. He challenged anyone to suggest that the manifesto was not a radical one but he also declared that Labour was not promising the Earth; "There are no magic wands or instant solutions", he admitted.

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It may be that the apparently growing level of public trust in Mr Blair and, most of all, the desperate desire for a change from the Tories after 18 years, will be enough to carry Mr Blair to Downing Street. But the sense persists that the Labour leader is playing a dangerously defensive game; the public will expect him to explain in more detail how he plans to deliver on his promises for education and employment; it will expect him to debate live on television with Mr Major.

Mr Blair would be wise to take nothing for granted. There is still almost a month to go before polling day. And a week, as Harold Wilson once remarked, is a long time in politics. A month can seem like an eternity.