The release from house arrest of the Burmese pro-democracy leader, Aung San Suu Kyi, has been cautiously welcomed by western leaders. There is good reason for such caution. The Burmese military junta has frequently demonstrated its extreme reluctance to relinquish power.
In 1995, under international pressure, it released Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest only to imprison her again. The regime has described the release as the opening of a new page for the country's people. Outside Burma, however, it has been seen as the first fragile step towards the re-introduction of democracy.
Perhaps the most accurate description of the situation was contained in the leader's own statement immediately after she was set free: "My release," she said, "should not be looked at as a major breakthrough for democracy. For all people in Burma to enjoy basic freedom - that would be the major breakthrough."
Nevertheless the unconditional nature of the release is encouraging. No restrictions have, as yet, been placed on her freedom of movement.
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It was her proposed journey from Rangoon to Mandalay in 2000 which caused the junta to place her under house arrest once more. Her victory in the last democratic elections, her pedigree as the daughter of Burma's independence leader Aung San, and her determination to uphold democratic values, caused the junta to take fright.
The military leaders knew that her presence in different parts of the country would lead to popular upheaval and eventually to their overthrow. There is little doubt that the military have the same fears on this occasion but with the country's economy in serious trouble following years of isolation from the rest of the world, they have few options open to them.
It is now up to the international community to continue applying their carrot-and-stick policy in order to force the junta to take important steps along the road to democracy. Japan - Burma's largest international donor - yesterday said it would increase aid in proportion to the introduction of pro-democracy measures.
At the same time, it should be made clear that any regression or reversion to dictatorial type will bring about severe economic and social consequences. There should be no turning back.