As the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies warned this week of the "dangerous triptych of Iraq, Afghanistan and Iran" and defence experts spoke of deteriorating global security, simultaneous events in the eastern Aegean reminded that deep-seated tensions remain closer to home.
The IISS's Military Balance 2006 report, and comments made at its publication, sketched credible scenarios in which a lethal cocktail of nuclear proliferation, involving unstable regimes and regions, and Islamic terrorism unfolded before a world dominated by a superpower with a short fuse and an instinct to shoot first and worry about the consequences later. "A very troubled international security landscape," as the report said.
The day before the IISS report, an incident occurred in the eastern Aegean which, had it happened a decade ago, might have propelled Greece and Turkey into a war. Somewhere above the Greek island of Carpathos, between Rhodes and Crete, Greek and Turkish air force pilots became involved in a spat which ended when two F-16 jets collided and crashed into the sea. The Greek pilot died, his Turkish counterpart ejected safely and was rescued by a passing merchant ship. Although each side blames the other - the Turkish plane "rammed into the Greek aircraft overhead following a wrong manoeuvre by the Turkish pilot" concluded a Greek inquiry; "a Greek F-16 jet crashed at speed into a Turkish jet from behind and below while the Turkish warplane was carrying out a routine flight and was not attempting any manoeuvre," said a Turkish inquiry - matters went no further. The Greek prime minister, Costas Karamanlis, described the situation as "dangerous", but he added quickly that he would continue "normalising Greek-Turkish relations". Turkey's foreign minister, Abdullah Gul, gave assurances that a hot line between Turkish and Greek authorities would be set up as soon as possible to better control flights.
This edgy detente between Greece and Turkey began in 1999 when the then Greek foreign minister, George Papandreou, commendably reached out to Ankara in the aftermath of the Izmit earthquake. Since then, tedious - often dangerous - bickering between the two Nato partners has abated and relations have begun a nervous maturation. It is in Turkey's manifest self-interest to nurture this rapprochement as it tries to join the EU and copper-fasten secularism within an Islamic context. Greece's partners in Europe are no less insistent on its behaviour. The more Europe deals with its own problems, the more credibility attaches to its efforts elsewhere.